Daily Point
_ Dow Jones 52,305.24 (+0.88%)
_ S&P 500 7,483.23 (+1.7%)
_ Nasdaq 26,040.03 (+2.21%)
_ Bitcoin 61,066.73 (+2.58%)
Topline Signals
- AI Infrastructure: Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend approximately $725 billion on capital expenditures in 2026, driven primarily by artificial intelligence infrastructure.
- Micron Technology: The company reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.456 billion, representing a 345.72% year-over-year increase, alongside non-GAAP earnings per share of $25.11.
- Bitcoin: U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a record $4.5 billion in net outflows during June 2026, contributing to the cryptocurrency's worst monthly performance since June 2022.
Good day.
The market’s sharp upward move, led by a 2.21% surge in the Nasdaq, reminds us why we ignore daily volatility to focus on structural capital cycles. While short-term traders obsess over tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls and next week's FOMC minutes, the real wealth-building story lies in the massive reallocation of global capital.
We are witnessing a profound transition in the artificial intelligence megatrend. The era of pure speculation is giving way to a hard-nosed focus on return on investment and infrastructure scale. Meta’s projected 2026 capital expenditures of up to $145 billion, combined with its potential move to monetize excess compute capacity, has sent shockwaves through the neocloud sector. This is the classic playbook of hyperscale dominance: building massive infrastructure and then turning excess capacity into a high-margin utility. For long-term investors, this reinforces the necessity of backing the entrenched giants who possess the balance sheets to survive and dominate this capital-intensive cycle.
Simultaneously, the macroeconomic landscape is shifting under the stewardship of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Despite persistent core inflation, his recent comments at Sintra suggesting that inflationary risks have eased provided a crucial relief valve for risk assets. This macro backdrop explains why Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 level, despite enduring its worst monthly performance since 2022 with $4.5 billion in June ETF outflows. What the retail market misses is the quiet accumulation of 50,000 to 100,000 BTC by long-term holders during this pullback. True financial freedom is achieved by recognizing these quiet accumulation phases in sovereign digital assets while the crowd panics over temporary liquidity drains. Focus on the structural trend, secure your position in cash-flow-rich infrastructure, and let time do the heavy lifting.
Weekly Schedule
2 Jul (Thursday)
FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Nonfarm Payrolls
Private Nonfarm Payrolls
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
U6 Unemployment Rate
Participation Rate
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Jobless Claims
Factory Orders
U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count
Fed's Balance Sheet
3 Jul (Friday)
(Holiday) Independence Day (observed)
4 Jul (Saturday)
5 Jul (Sunday)
6 Jul (Monday)
S&P Global Composite PMI
S&P Global Services PMI
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions
CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions
CFTC Gold speculative net positions
CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions
7 Jul (Tuesday)
ADP Employment Change Weekly
Trade Balance
Exports
Imports
NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
3-Year Note Auction
API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
8 Jul (Wednesday)
Atlanta Fed GDPNow
10-Year Note Auction
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Consumer Credit
General
HELOC and home equity loan interest rates today, Wednesday, July 1: Why locking in a low rate matters
Today's national average monthly adjustable-rate HELOC is 7.25%. The average fixed rate on a home equity loan is 7.86%, according to data analytics company Curinos. Both rates are based on applicants with a minimum credit score of 780 and a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) of 70%. The prime rate is currently 6.75%. If a lender added a 0.75% margin, the HELOC rate would be 7.50%. A home equity loan may have a different margin because it is a fixed-interest product. Rates vary significantly from one lender to another, making it difficult to pinpoint a single, definitive number. The current national average for a HELOC is 7.25%, and 7.86% for a home equity loan. Those can serve as a baseline when shopping for rates from second mortgage lenders. If you withdraw the full $50,000 from a home equity line of credit and pay a 7.25% interest rate, for example, your monthly payment during the 10-year draw period would be about $302.
Mortgage and refinance rates today, Wednesday, July 1: Rates are up today
According to the Zillow lender marketplace, compared to yesterday, the 30-year fixed-rate purchase loan rose 7 basis points to 6.26%, the 15-year fixed purchase loan rose 1 basis point to 5.71%, and the 5/1 ARM purchase rate rose 11 basis points to 6.17%.
Core Inflation Just Hit a 3-Year High. For One Retired Couple, the Frozen Tax Thresholds Turn That Into a Stealth Tax Increase.
Core Inflation Just Hit a 3-Year High. For One Retired Couple, the Frozen Tax Thresholds Turn That Into a Stealth Tax Increase. Gerelyn Terzo 6 min read Quick Read Social Security tax thresholds of $32,000 and $44,000 for married filers, frozen since 1984, let inflation silently push retirees into owing taxes on up to 85% of benefits. Traditional IRA withdrawals count dollar-for-dollar toward provisional income, while Roth and taxable brokerage withdrawals do not, making withdrawal sequencing critical for retirees. Required minimum distributions beginning at 73 can force provisional income past the 85% threshold, but early Roth conversions in lower-income years can reduce that future burden. The couple is both around 70, retired, drawing most of their income from Social Security with modest withdrawals from a traditional IRA to cover what the monthly check does not stretch to. They read the morning economic headlines: May's core PCE rose at a 3.4% annual rate, the highest since October 2023, while headline PCE ran at 4.1%, the highest since April of that same year. The Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes that report, and PCE is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. They feel the prices at the grocery store and the pharmacy, and they know what a hot inflation reading usually means: a larger cost-of-living raise on next year's Social Security check. Retirees in online forums describe the same bittersweet feeling, relieved that a bigger raise may be coming and uneasy that it never seems to keep pace with what they actually spend. Fed Chair Warsh recently reinforced a commitment to deliver price stability and signaled a possible rate hike as soon as September, with energy prices tied to the Iran war seeping into healthcare and utilities.
Warsh hits the international stage with peers sharing an inflation problem
Warsh participates in a question-and-answer session beginning at 9 a.m. EDT (1300 GMT) at the European Central Bank's annual economic forum in Sintra, Portugal, where he will share a stage with ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem. All three were signatories to an unprecedented letter earlier this year in support of former Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his battle with the Trump administration over Fed independence, an issue that hit a key milestone this week when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled Fed Governor Lisa Cook could keep her job despite President Donald Trump's announcement last year that he had fired her. Powell has been lauded by his peers as a bulwark in that fight, considered important to maintaining the Fed as a prop to global financial stability. Warsh, so far, has been reluctant to speak directly to issues like the attempted firing of Cook or the legal pressure brought against Powell. Wednesday will be Warsh's first public appearance outside the June 17 press conference that followed his first policy meeting as chair, where the Fed held interest rates steady and Warsh took a hawkish tone in pledging to hit the central bank's 2% inflation target.
US futures edge lower as investors await Warsh remarks and key economic data: Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq, Wall Street
May job openings exceeded expectations, while housing and consumer confidence figures disappointed. Together with hawkish remarks from Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack, the stronger labour market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could consider raising interest rates as early as July. Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, has indicated that he may adopt a different approach to forward guidance by reducing the amount of policy direction provided to financial markets.
American families are hoarding piles of cash, but leaving money on the table. Here's why, and how to make it all back
As of June, the average national deposit rate on a checking account is just 0.07%, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (3). Inflation was up 4.2% before seasonal adjustments over the past year, according to a June 10 report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (4). A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it. A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%.
The Fed's Bank Stress Test Results Are In. Here's What They Mean for Dividends and Buybacks.
According to the Fed, the banks proved they had sufficient capital to absorb nearly $708 billion in losses while continuing to lend to households and businesses under these hypothetical, stressful conditions. Under the hypothetical scenario of a severe recession, the aggregate common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio of the 32 banks fell from an actual 12.8% Q4 of 2025 to a low of 11.2% in the depths of the hypothetical recession. But this was still above the required minimum regulatory levels. Then the average recovered back to 12.7% by the end of the scenario. The stress test results typically lead to the Federal Reserve setting stress capital buffers for banks, which is the amount of additional capital they would need beyond the regulatory minimum to absorb a shock. But this year, the buffers did not change, as the Fed is currently calculating new stress capital buffer requirements and awaiting public feedback on potential changes. So the buffers from last year will remain in place this year. Most top 10 banks boost dividends Banks typically raise their dividends after the stress test results and initiate share buybacks. That's because if the results are good, this tells the banks they have plenty of capital to survive tough times, which gives them the green light to return capital to investors under normal conditions. Immediately after the results came out last week, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), Citigroup (NYSE: C), PNC (NYSE: PNC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and BNY Mellon (NYSE: BNY) initiated dividend raises. Of the 10 largest banks, only Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and Truist (NYSE: TFC) have not. But Bank of America has raised its dividend every year since 2021 in the third quarter following stress test results, so it's likely to do so again when it announces second-quarter results on July 14.
Stocks close out Q2, Nike earnings, egg prices and more in Morning Squawk
The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best first half of a year since 2021. The Nasdaq Composite saw its largest quarterly gain since 2020, powered by record-setting advances in semiconductor stocks and cybersecurity leaders. The small-cap focused Russell 2000 soared more than 21% in the first six months of the year, its best first-half since 1991. Brent crude saw its biggest monthly decline since March 2020, but is still up big on the year following the U.S. war with Iran. Gold saw its largest quarterly decline in 13 years, further unwinding last year's monster run. Nike reported stronger-than-expected results for the fiscal fourth quarter. But the athletic retailer posted a 12% sales drop in the closely watched China market, leading shares down 3% in extended trading. Total revenue ticked down 1% from the same quarter a year prior. While revenue for North America rose 3%, it still came up short of Wall Street's consensus forecast. On the other hand, the Oregon-based company said its gross margin grew by nearly 9% in the quarter. As CNBC's Laya Neelakandan notes, that was driven in part by an expected tariff refund after the Supreme Court struck down many of President Donald Trump's levies. In an interview with CNBC's Sara Eisen yesterday, Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack called the demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure "insatiable." And she warned that it could drive up inflation. Hammack said during the European Central Bank Conference in Sintra, Portugal, that inflation has been "too high" for the past five years. As a result, she said the Fed may need to raise interest rates. Major egg producers settled a price inflation probe with the Justice Department and several state attorneys general. As part of the deal, the companies agreed to donate around 53 million eggs to food banks and related nonprofits. The DOJ and states alleged that Cal-Maine Foods, Versova and Hickman's Egg Ranch "illegally coordinated" for almost three years to raise a daily price index for the food. The proposed settlements would prevent the companies from "coordinated" price manipulation in the future by adding antitrust compliance programs and compliance officers.
S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as chip stocks surge in Q2 2026
A gain of 8.9% for the Dow over the January-through-June stretch represented the index's strongest first-half result in five years. The S&P 500 rose 9.6% and the Nasdaq gained 12.8% over the same period. Nearly 22% in first-half appreciation made the Russell 2000's 2026 opening stretch the index's best since 1991, according to CNBC. A record-breaking run in chip equities saw $2 trillion flow into the combined valuations of Micron, Intel, and Advanced Micro Devices between April and June. Wednesday brought minimal movement in U.S. Treasury yields, which had climbed the prior session after robust job-openings figures strengthened arguments for tighter monetary policy. The possibility of additional rate increases pushed gold beneath the $4,000-per-troy-ounce threshold.
Dollar bulls gain ground even as most FX strategists still expect weakness: Reuters poll
U.S. inflation that is well above target, a resilient economy, elevated Treasury yields and news in June nearly half of Fed policymakers expect rates to rise this year. Poll medians showed the euro rising 2% to $1.16 by end-September, $1.17 at year-end and $1.18 a year from now. "There's the possibility the Fed could end up cutting interest rates in 2027, so we're more dovish than the market on the Fed."
European stocks mostly drop with eyes on US Fed
That puts Thursday's US non-farm payrolls figures for June in focus, with a strong reading likely to ramp up expectations and deal a fresh blow to stocks, while a below-forecast reading could provide a boost.
Private employers added 98,000 jobs in June, fewer than expected
US private employers brought on 98,000 jobs in June, payroll processor ADP said Wednesday, missing expectations. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a gain of 120,000 positions, roughly on par with May's increase. About half of June's growth was concentrated in education and health services, according to ADP's data, while the financial activities sector gained 14,000 positions. The federal government's employment situation report, due to be published Thursday, is expected to show a gain of 115000 positions — a moderation from May's blowout jobs report, but still well above the "breakeven rate," or the number of jobs the economy needs to avoid rising unemployment.
World stocks pause after rally as focus turns to Warsh
Inflation in the bloc slowed to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, coming well below expectations for a 3.0% reading, as food, energy and services price pressures all eased. Traders marginally pared bets on further tightening after the figures and were pricing in around 23 basis points of additional ECB rate increases by year-end.
Kevin Warsh declines to hint at July Fed rate decision at Sintra
Interest rates at the Fed have remained unchanged throughout the year as officials assess how durably inflation has taken hold alongside other economic considerations. A striking shift in the internal composition of Fed opinion also emerged from that June meeting: 9 of 19 Fed officials forecast a rate hike by year's end, compared with none who held that view in March.
Fed may adopt leaner communications strategy under Warsh, says Deutsche Bank
Federal Reserve communications are likely to become shorter, less reliant on forward guidance and more focused on longer-term economic narratives under new Chair Kevin Warsh, Deutsche Bank analysts wrote, as the central bank reviews how it communicates monetary policy. Deutsche Bank wrote that Warsh's newly announced communications task force is likely to produce "notable innovations" beginning next year, with most of its work expected to be completed by the fall and recommendations potentially finalized by year-end. They believe that Warsh's first Federal Open Market Committee meeting signaled a preference for "regime change rather than incremental adjustments" to how the Fed communicates policy. Among the changes Deutsche Bank expects are shorter post-meeting statements that omit forward guidance and detailed descriptions of the Fed's policy reaction function. The bank wrote that Warsh's streamlined statement following the June FOMC meeting is likely to become the standard during his tenure. Deutsche Bank also wrote that meaningful forward guidance is unlikely under Warsh, citing his long-standing criticism that such guidance has little role outside periods when interest rates are near zero. The bank expects the Fed to retain its Summary of Economic Projections but potentially reform or eliminate the closely watched "dot plot," replacing it with central tendency forecasts for the federal funds rate to reduce markets' focus on individual policymakers' rate projections. While Deutsche Bank believes press conferences after every FOMC meeting are likely to continue, it wrote that their content will change, with less emphasis on recent economic data, near-term policy signals and the Fed's reaction function, and more focus on broader economic themes. The bank also wrote that although Warsh may seek to reduce the volume of public remarks from Fed officials, regional Federal Reserve presidents are likely to continue speaking regularly because of their responsibilities to local constituencies and concerns about preserving the central bank's independence.
Nasdaq Opens Lower, Warsh Dodges Questions on July Rate Decision
Warsh dodged questions about whether an interest-rate hike is in the cards this month, but said inflationary risks have eased since the last FOMC meeting.
Bitcoin climbs toward $60,000 after Fed Chair Warsh said inflation risks has come down
- Bitcoin climbed back toward $60,000 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have come down while reaffirming the central bank's 2% target. - Inflation risks have come down," Warsh said. "If there were people in households or the business sector, in the financial markets, who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2%, well, I guess they'd be disappointed. We're going to deliver price stability in the U.S."
US construction spending inches up in May, but homebuilding weak
U.S. construction spending edged up in May as higher mortgage rates because of the Middle East conflict constrained homebuilding. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Wednesday that construction spending rose 0.1% after a downwardly revised 0.3% increase in April. Construction spending fell 1.5% on a year-over-year basis in May. Spending on new single-family housing projects dropped 0.1%. It tumbled 4.0% year-on-year in May. The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has increased by about 50 basis points since the conflict started at the end of February, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. It averaged 6.49% last week.
Half-year report: How markets have fared in the first half of 2026 and in Q2
The S&P 500 is about 14% higher despite a roughly –2% pullback in June - one day of trade to go we should note. The MSCI All World rose +14% for the quarter, the best second quarter performance in 6 years. Treasury yields remained elevated throughout much of the half, placing pressure on rate-sensitive sectors such as real estate while leaving equity markets increasingly reliant on companies capable of generating strong earnings regardless of financing conditions. I think the arrival of Warsh is incredibly important to the rest of the year and beyond. He signals a new credibility by being willing to adjust front-end rates swiftly, a hyper-adaptive reaction function which will in turn anchor inflation expectations, reduce term premia and flatten the curve. The first half of 2026 also highlighted how quickly markets can reprice geopolitical risks. Oil prices surged as fears grew that conflict involving Iran could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, reviving concerns over inflation and forcing investors to reassess the outlook for central bank policy. A key shift this year has been the market moving from expecting Fed support to realising it's not on hand. The mood shifted a bit during the second half of the month. Diplomatic progress reduced fears of wider regional escalation, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed with relatively limited disruption and oil prices gave back much of their earlier gains. The themes that defined the first half Looking back, four themes stand out. First, artificial intelligence continued its transition from a compelling narrative into a measurable earnings driver, justifying continued capital investment and supporting elevated valuations - for selective stocks!
Why Progress Software Stock Is Skyrocketing Today
Progress Software recorded non-GAAP (adjusted) earnings of $1.62 on sales of $253.5 million in fiscal Q2, beating the average Wall Street analyst estimate's call for per-share earnings of $1.49 on sales of $242.74 million. Sales unexpectedly rose 6.7% year over year in the quarter, and net income surged 24% compared to the prior-year period. The company now expects sales for the period to come in between $990 million and $1.02 billion -- up from its previous guidance for sales between $988 million and $1 billion. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to be between $6.09 and $6.21 -- with the midpoint of its guidance reflecting an $0.18 per share increase over its previous target. The company also hiked its targets for adjusted free cash flow to between $271 million and $283 million for the year and unlevered free cash flow to between $323 million and $334 million.
Consumer Outlook Brightens, Slightly
The global inflation rate is pegged to average approximately 4.5 to 5 percent this year. As a result, the authors of the report are calling for the global economy to grow 2.4 percent this year. That rate of growth is being pressure by higher levels of inflation. According to separate data from the Council on Foreign Relations and the International Monetary Fund, the global inflation rate is pegged to average approximately 4.5 to 5 percent this year. The VBEI report found that consumers are adjusting to higher costs. They are also more focused on value. As digital commerce continues to reshape how people shop and pay, consumers are finding more ways to compare prices and stretch their budgets, helping to keep inflation in check," said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa. The key themes shaping the global economy center around more resilient consumers (who are adjusting rather than retreating in their spending), digital commerce serving as a relief valve on prices and a wave of business investment. Visa said the VBEI data show that, even as higher costs weigh on household budgets, discretionary spending is holding relatively steady. The report's authors said there's evidence that consumers "are adapting their behavior and seeking deals rather than pulling back sharply."
The Average Inherited 401(k) Is $267,900. The 10-Year Rule Will Cost You Thousands in Taxes.
The average Baby Boomer 401(k) balance is $260,300 dollars, according to a recent 2026 retirement analysis. A beneficiary in their peak earning years, already in the 24% or 32% federal bracket, can lose a meaningful share of the inheritance to taxes simply by accepting the default schedule. The squeeze gets tighter for heirs of larger accounts. Fidelity counted 654,000 401(k) millionaires in Q3 2025. A million-dollar inherited balance distributed over a decade adds $100,000 a year of taxable income, which can push a middle-income heir into a higher bracket for the entire 10-year window. Distributions from a traditional inherited 401(k) are taxed as ordinary income.
June jobs data unveils a harsh truth for Bitcoin bulls
ADP reported that private-sector employment grew by just 98,000 in June. The ADP National Employment Report offers an independent, frequently updated snapshot of private-sector hiring, drawn from anonymized, aggregated payroll data covering more than 26 million U.S. workers. Annual pay gains held steady at 4.4% for workers staying in their jobs and edged up to 6.6% for job switchers. The report lands as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh keeps the central bank in a holding pattern. Markets are pricing a 66.3% chance the Fed holds rates steady at its July meeting, and a 33.7% chance of a hike to 375-400 basis points, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
7.6 Million Job Openings Just Landed. Here’s What It Means for Thursday’s Payrolls Bomb
The May job openings report landed at 7.6 million, running past the 7.3 million economists had penciled in and clearing the revised April number too. Bloomberg’s Enda Curran framed the read as a labor market that has stopped bleeding, with Thursday’s nonfarm payrolls now expected to print somewhere north of 100,000 jobs created. Unemployment has parked at 4.3% for three straight months, March through May 2026. That is up from 3.7% in January 2024, but the drift has flattened. The Sahm Rule, which trips a recession signal at 0.50, sat at 0.10 as of May 1, 2026, back to its July 2025 baseline after peaking at 0.43 in November 2025. Average hourly earnings across the private sector hit $37.53 in May 2026, up from $36.28 a year earlier, and every month of 2026 has posted a fresh high.
Bitcoin
Aave logs biggest network-growth day in nearly 5 years as DeFi interest returns
The AAVE token has risen about 20% in a week even as the broader market slides. The AAVE token is up about 9% over the past week, and the protocol now holds roughly $12.2 billion in total value locked, helped by anticipation around a version upgrade and revenue-focused changes. Aave, one of the largest decentralized lending protocols by locked value, recorded its strongest day of new-wallet creation in almost five years on June 30, a sign of fresh interest in the AAVE token even as the wider crypto market weakens. The protocol added 1,806 new wallets on the Ethereum blockcain in 24 hours, its highest single-day total since October 2021, according to analytics firm Santiment. AAVE has moved with that interest. It traded around $86.2 on Tuesday, down about 2.4% over 24 hours, in line with a broad market pullback. Still, it's gained roughly 9% over the past week, CoinDesk data show, one of the few major cryptocurrencies in the green over that stretch. The protocol holds about $12.2 billion in deposits, or total value locked, the sum users have supplied to earn yield or borrow against.
Bitcoin options traders load up on $50,000 puts and gold futures flash a death cross
Bitcoin options traders load up on $50,000 puts and gold futures flash a death cross Bitcoin options flows and a record gold OI suggest traders are bracing for further downside rather than a sustained recovery. - Bitcoin dipped to $57,700, its lowest since September 2024, before recovering to $58,800, with $395 million in liquidations recorded and bears remaining the more aggressive side despite open interest climbing to 768,000 BTC. - Puts are trading at a premium to calls across all timeframes on Deribit, with a notable block trade targeting a $50,000 BTC put at the September expiry suggesting some traders expect a further 15% decline by end of Q3. A total of $395 million worth of crypto futures bets have been liquidated in 24 hours, with bullish plays accounting for most of the tally. That's hardly surprising given BTC's dip to lows under $58,000 early in the day. BTC's futures open interest (OI) jumped to 768K BTC from 740K BTC a day ago. While the influx of money is encouraging, it's unclear whether the bias is for bullish or bearish bets. For instance, the annualized funding rates hover near 5%, hinting at a bullish bias, while the 24-hour cumulative volume delta is negative, suggesting bears are being more aggressive and trading with market orders rather than passive limit orders. Gold perpetual futures OI hit a record high of 222K XAU tokens. This comes as the metal's spot price shows a bearish death cross, signaled by the 50-day simple moving average crossing below the 200-day SMA. Key flows at over-the-counter desk Paradigm featured demand for the September expiry bitcoin put at the $50K strike price. This is a bet that prices could slide below $50K by the end of the third quarter.
Crypto enters Q3 with thinner liquidity but less leverage after Q2 reset: Talos
Bitcoin open interest, which measures the value of outstanding derivatives contracts, fell to $33.5 billion, down 32% from its Q2 peak, while Ether open interest dropped to $16.2 billion, a 40% decline, according to the data provider. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $696.3 million in net outflows in a single day on June 25. In total, June recorded about $4.5 billion in outflows, pushing year-to-date totals to $5.5 billion. Strategy also purchased roughly 3,600 BTC in June, down from about 25,000 BTC in May and more than 50,000 BTC in April, according to company disclosures.
Could Crypto Winter End Soon? Fidelity Identifies 5 Catalysts That Could Drive Bitcoin's Next Bull Run
According to a new analysis from Fidelity Digital Assets, history suggests several catalysts could eventually trigger the next bull market. The asset manager identifies five developments that have repeatedly coincided with previous recoveries: Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, supportive regulation, looser monetary policy, a breakthrough crypto use case, and growing institutional adoption. Since 2011, Bitcoin has experienced four major bear markets, with bottoms and subsequent recoveries often occurring roughly four years apart. The cycle has largely been driven by Bitcoin's halving mechanism, which reduces mining rewards every four years and slows the rate at which new coins enter circulation. Fidelity notes that major regulatory developments have historically restored confidence during periods of market weakness. The introduction of New York's BitLicense framework in 2015 helped rebuild trust after the collapse of Mt. Gox, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded products in January 2024 contributed to Bitcoin's eventual rally to record highs. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have tended to benefit when the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, as cheaper borrowing costs generally increase investor appetite for risk assets. Conversely, expectations of higher rates have often pressured crypto prices. Corporate treasury purchases helped fuel Bitcoin's 2020 rally, while the approval of spot crypto ETFs and the announcement of a US Strategic Crypto Reserve contributed to the market's advance toward new all-time highs in 2025.
Ark Invest bought more than $75 million of crypto shares during June bloodbath
Shares of Circle slumped 40% in June, ending the month at $62.63. The decline included an 18% drop on June 30 following the debut of rival stablecoin Open USD, which is backed by more than 140 companies, including Coinbase, Stripe, Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock. COIN ended June just under 20% lower at $146.19, while BLSH fell 27% to $23.43. The firm bought $44 million worth of shares in Coinbase, $25 million of Circle Internet and $8.2 million of Bullish.
French banking giant Crédit Agricole launches EURXT euro stablecoin
According to data from the project’s website, there are 20.02 million EURXT tokens in circulation at launch, matched by roughly 20.02 million euros in reserves held by CACEIS Bank. The EURXT stablecoin launches in compliance with Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), the European Union’s crypto regulatory framework targeting crypto exchanges and issuers of digital assets. CACEIS secured a MiCA crypto-asset service provider (CASP) license from French regulators in June 2025.
Bitcoin opens the third quarter in an historical red zone after rare losing first half
Bitcoin fell in both the first and second quarters of 2026, only the third time it has opened a year that way. In the two earlier instances, 2018 and 2022, the second half brought no rescue. - Bitcoin has started 2026 with two consecutive losing quarters, falling about 22% in the first quarter and 14% in the second, a pattern previously seen only in the structurally bearish years of 2018 and 2022. The current downturn appears driven less by panic than by steady selling tied to record outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, subdued on-chain activity, a strong dollar and investor rotation into AI stocks, with some analysts eyeing $40,000 as the next key support level. Bitcoin The largest cryptocurrency fell 22.2% in the first quarter and another 14.09% in the second, according to Coinglass data, and was trading just above $59,000 on Wednesday as the third quarter began. Consecutive losing quarters to open a year is something bitcoin has done only twice before in its history, in 2018 and 2022. Both rank among the worst years in its history. The second half of those two years offered no rescue. In 2018, after a weak first half, the third quarter eked out a 3.6% gain before the fourth quarter collapsed 42%. In 2022, the third quarter fell 2.6% and the fourth dropped nearly 15%. The seasonal pattern normally runs the other way. Across bitcoin's full record, the fourth quarter has been its strongest by a wide margin, averaging a 77% gain with a median near 48%, the stretch that has repeatedly salvaged mediocre years. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen record outflows over the past month, the number of active users onchain has stayed near the low end of its range, and capital has rotated steadily into AI stocks, which just posted their best quarter in years while crypto fell.
Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Wednesday, July 1: Bitcoin's worst month since June '22
$58,549.86 on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, down 2.6% from Tuesday's open. Ethereum (ETH-USD) opened at $1,569.74 on Wednesday, July 1, 2026, down 2.5% compared to Tuesday's opening price. The all-time high for bitcoin was $126,198.07 on Oct. 6, 2025. The all-time low value for bitcoin was $0.04865 on July 14, 2010. The all-time high for ethereum was $4,953.73 on Aug. 24, 2025. The all-time low value for ethereum was $0.4209 on Oct. 21, 2015. You generally owe taxes when you sell cryptocurrency for more than you paid for it. This also applies when you exchange one digital asset for another. Converting bitcoin into ethereum, for example, isn't "just a trade" in the eyes of the IRS. It's a taxable event if the value changes. How much tax you pay depends on two main factors: - How long you held the asset before selling - Your overall taxable income and filing status
Citi slashes 12-month bitcoin, ether targets as ETF flows dry up
Citi cut its BTC target to $82,000 from $112,000 and ETH target to $2,240 from $3,175. The bank now expects zero net ETF inflows over the next 12 months, versus previous forecasts for fresh demand. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund demand has weakened sharply in recent months, removing what has been the crypto market's biggest source of institutional buying since the funds launched in 2024. The ETFs recorded a record $4 billion in net outflows in June, the largest monthly withdrawal on record, after a 13-day redemption streak pushed year-to-date flows into negative territory for the first time. The bank's revised forecasts assume flat ETF flows in its base case. In its bull case, stronger retail and institutional adoption lifts bitcoin to $108,000 and ether to $2,932. Its bear case, based on recessionary macro conditions and continued ETF outflows, sees BTC falling to $53,000 and ETH to $1,094. Despite the lower forecasts, ETF flows remain the single most important variable in the bank's valuation framework and any meaningful reversal in investor demand, or unexpected legislative progress, could quickly change the outlook.
French banking giant Crédit Agricole rolls out euro stablecoin, EURXT
There are 20 million EURXT in circulation on Ethereum, backed 1:1 by euro reserves held by Caceis Bank. The compares with about 378 million of Circle's EURC and 124 million of SocGen's EURCV. The euro stablecoin market has grown substantially since MiCA rules governing the tokens took effect a year ago, with market capitalization more than doubling in 12 months, according to a DECTA study.
AI Agents are Starting to Handle Money. This Blockchain Wants to Build Their Bank
52% of financial firms are actively adopting agentic AI, with 23% already scaling or transforming around it. Bond says its platform combines A spot decentralized exchange, Perpetuals exchange Lending and borrowing markets, And also a planned neobank layer with fiat on/off ramps, global transfers, on-chain IBAN access, Visa debit cards, and yield-bearing accounts. The company has launched on 0G, an AI-native blockchain network, with a DeFi platform designed for both humans and autonomous AI agents. Bond is backed by a $10 million incentive programme from 0G Labs, a $3.5 million direct investment, and a stated $50 million TVL target. The incentive programme will run over 12 months and will be tracked on-chain.
EthLabs launches as Ethereum undergoes its biggest leadership transition in years
Over the past decade, Ethereum's developer community focused on building the foundational pieces of the network: from smart contracts and decentralized finance to scaling technologies and layer-2 networks. With those building blocks largely in place, Dietrichs believes the next challenge is ensuring Ethereum can support large-scale financial infrastructure. I don't think crypto and Ethereum will ever go back to a time like it was in the past," he said, arguing that the ecosystem has moved beyond the boom-and-bust cycles that previously defined it. That transition has also reshaped the Ethereum Foundation itself. Earlier this year, the foundation published a renewed mandate emphasizing Ethereum's core values: including credible neutrality, self-sovereignty and open infrastructure, while reducing its involvement in some implementation-focused initiatives.
Europe is closing the door on offshore crypto, but it’s leaving the riskiest window open
Roughly 80% according to data from Glassnode — takes place in the crypto perpetual futures market. 74% to 89% of retail investment accounts lose money on CFDs across EU jurisdictions, with average losses per client ranging from €1,600 to €29,000. My own research on a large dataset of real crypto perpetual futures activity finds retail loss rates in the same range, with the clear majority of accounts losing and a striking share of capital wiped out entirely.
Forward Industries Shares Spike as Leading Solana Treasury Adds $38 Million in SOL
Shares in leading Solana treasury firm Forward Industries have jumped nearly 17% to trade at $4.94 after the firm announced it acquired more than $38 million worth of Solana during its fiscal third quarter. The firm bolstered its treasury with more than 500,000 SOL at an average price around $79 and now maintains a balance sheet with around 7.55 million SOL, currently valued around $579 million as Solana trades just under $77. Beyond share price, the firm measures SOL held per share as an indicator of its performance, which has grown to 0.0729 or around 9% in the last three months. SOL is up about 3.3% in the last 24 hours, but has fallen more than 74% from its all-time high of $293.
Cantor says bitcoin bear market may be entering final stretch
As of June 10, bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak and down about 51%. Across the previous three market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking, implying the current downturn could reach a low around late October if history repeats. Crypto markets have struggled in recent months, with bitcoin falling more than 50% from its late-2025 peak after a sharp June selloff driven by persistent exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows, elevated interest rates and weaker risk appetite. Cantor identified Hyperliquid as the clearest example of fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and burns, while bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum the dominant collateral layer for onchain finance.
Jefferies warns against buying the dip in Circle as Open USD raises new competition fears
Circle (CRCL) shares bounced 5% Wednesday after a 17% plunge, as investors are weighing whether the new Open USD stablecoin consortium backed by Stripe, Mastercard, Coinbase and BlackRock poses a lasting threat to the USDC issuer. Global brokerage Jefferies isn't convinced the selloff has fully priced in the risks, arguing that Circle faces mounting competitive pressure as banks, payment firms and fintechs increasingly launch their own stablecoins. "CRCL headwinds are unlikely to ease," analysts wrote, warning that competition could pressure USDC's supply growth and market share. The authors argued that Circle, which holds roughly 25% of the $300 billion stablecoin market, is moving into a more competitive phase. While USDC benefited from an early lead after launching in 2018, Jefferies said new entrants now have something Circle lacked in its early years: large built-in distribution networks. The launch of Open USD, backed by more than 140 companies including Stripe, Coinbase, Visa, Mastercard and BlackRock, points that shift. The consortium plans to share reserve income with participating companies, potentially making the platform more attractive to payment providers and fintechs. Jefferies analysts also flagged Coinbase's participation as a new risk. Circle derives about 95% of its revenue from interest earned on USDC reserves and relies heavily on Coinbase as its largest distribution partner. The companies' commercial agreement is reportedly up for renewal in August. While the brokerage doesn't view Coinbase joining Open USD as a sign it's abandoning USDC, it said the exchange could eventually promote competing stablecoins, weighing on USDC's growth. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire pushed back against the competitive narrative in a lengthy post on X Wednesday, arguing that stablecoins are ultimately network businesses built over years rather than products that can be replicated overnight. He pointed to USDC's ecosystem of thousands of integrations, deep liquidity across exchanges and decentralized finance protocols and regulatory approvals in markets including Europe and Japan as advantages that would be difficult for newcomers to match. He also disputed one of Open USD's central selling points: sharing reserve income with partners. Circle already shares the majority of its income with distribution partners, he said, while retaining enough revenue to keep investing in infrastructure. "Giving away all the income is a recipe for starving an infrastructure," Allaire wrote. He was also skeptical of the consortium model itself. "Large groups of large companies coordinate poorly, have misaligned incentives, slow things down and rarely create the space for real durable innovation," he wrote. That skepticism is shared by Lorenzo Valente, director of digital asset research at ARK Invest, who noted that crypto has seen several consortium-backed stablecoin initiatives over the years, including Meta's Diem project and Paxos-led Global Dollar Network. "Every year we get our consortium-style initiative around a stablecoin," Valente wrote in an X post. "While the set of players here is obviously potent, I remain highly skeptical any of these initiatives can hit scale." He said Open Standard's biggest challenge may be coordinating more than 140 participants with competing interests. "A consortium of hundreds of rivals has no precedent for working," he said. "The pace of decision-making across competitors is going to be glacial."
XRP Price Prediction for July 2026
Spot XRP ETFs have pulled in about $1.48 billion but just saw their first net outflow in weeks as the second quarter closed. The spot XRP ETFs are the one bullish signal that actually creates demand for the token itself. Since launching, they've pulled in about $1.48 billion, and because they hold XRP directly, every dollar in has to buy the token on the open market. But that buying just cooled off. On June 30, the funds saw their first net outflow in weeks, just as the second quarter closed. The one development that could genuinely change XRP's price is the CLARITY Act. The bill would permanently classify XRP as a commodity under U.S. law instead of leaving its status up to regulators. And it's about to miss the deadline the market had been watching. With no catalyst likely to force a move higher this month, a few levels on the chart will probably decide where XRP goes. The Downside On the downside, the level to watch remains the $1 support. XRP is trading just above it around $1.04, held up by a thick band of support between $1 and $1.06 where roughly 830 million XRP last changed hands. For the XRP price to move higher, the coin has to reclaim the levels it keeps getting rejected at. The first is $1.08 to $1.10, where the bears keep showing up. Above that is $1.13 to $1.15, roughly where the 50-day average has capped the recent bounces. The one that matters most is the $1.18 to $1.20 zone, which is the top of the falling channel XRP has been stuck in for a while now. Reclaiming and holding it would signal that the year-long downtrend could finally be breaking.
Bernstein sees 203% upside for Circle even as new stablecoin rival OUSD debuts
USDC processed $5.3 trillion in the first half of 2026 alone, roughly 140% growth over 2025's full-year pace, with its share of transaction volume rising from about 40% in 2025 to about 60% so far in 2026, according to Bernstein's analysis of Visa onchain data. Circle’s USDC holds about 28% of the dollar stablecoin monetary base, the firm said, but its transaction volume tells a different story.
Citi Slashes Bitcoin Target to $82,000 as ETF Money Heads for the Exits
Citi sharply lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target to $82,000, citing collapsing ETF demand, weaker investor sentiment and delayed U.S. crypto legislation.
Ethereum Foundation lays out use cases for governments, institutions in new policy guide
$76 billion worth of staked ETH as of March 2026.
Bitcoin bounces off 21-month low, but leverage data signals caution: Was $57K the bottom?
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen more money leave than enter in recent weeks, including a reported $4.5 billion total outflow in June, the largest since the funds launched. Investors’ cautious stance shows up differently depending on what data is analyzed. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen more money leave than enter in recent weeks, including a reported $4.5 billion total outflow in June, the largest since the funds launched. At the same time, onchain data shows that long-term holders added roughly 270,000 BTC over the past two weeks.
Bitcoin tops $60K amid Fed inflation talks: Is bull trap or $65K next?
Bitcoin rallied above $60,000 despite Federal Reserve rate hike fears and steady outflows from the BTC spot ETFs. Strong AI sector earnings momentum and higher fixed-income returns pull capital from Bitcoin and gold. US government bond futures implied 64% odds of interest rate hikes by September, up from 23% one month prior. Continued outflows from US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have shattered bulls’ hopes, reinforcing a negative price spiral as negative news gets amplified while positive events barely register.
Trumps’ American Bitcoin sinks 8.4% ahead of reverse stock split to stay listed
American Bitcoin reported in May that it lost $81.7 million in the first quarter. Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at around $60,000 early Thursday, down 32% so far this year and having more than halved from its peak of more than $126,000 in October, according to CoinGecko.
Bitcoin Spikes as Kevin Warsh Flags Inflation Concerns; Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin Also Gain: Popular Analyst Says 'Market Bottom Is Here'
Over $450 million was liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in the last 24 hours, with $279 million in short positions wiped out, according to Coinglass data. Bitcoin's open interest spiked 1.80% over the last 24 hours. BTC's taker buy volume exceeded the sell volume over the last 24 hours, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $2.07 trillion, following an increase of 2.78% over the last 24 hours.
Analyst warns BTC could drop further after worst June since 2022
Bitcoin fell 20.5% in June to close the month at $58,526 — its worst monthly performance since June 2022 — below its 200-week moving average of $62,000 but above its realized price of $52,000. “ALL previous bear market bottoms were below realized price,” said PlanB, the creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model, on Wednesday, adding in a separate post that Bitcoin could drop to $52,000.
FBI Director Kash Patel caught sleeping on required disclosure of six-figure MSTR investment: Report
According to the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge (STOCK) Act, high-ranking executive branch officials need to publicly disclose individual stock trades over $1,000 within 45 days from the transaction. The company, which according to NOTUS has done millions of dollars in business over the years with the Justice Department, calls itself as a “Bitcoin Treasury Company,” and aggressively accumulates BTC as its primary reserve asset. Since 2020, the company has built a coin stash of 847,363 BTC, worth over $50 billion as of this writing. Strategy's stock has lost roughly half its value since Patel’s purchase, though the company remains a cornerstone of institutional crypto investment.
Ether, solana, dogecoin in the green after Warsh comments push bitcoin above $60,000
Solana led the majors. The token rose about 4% on the day to around $78 and is up roughly 16% over the past week, per CoinDesk data, the only large token with a meaningful weekly gain. Ether traded near $1,630, up about 3% on the day, while XRP held at about $1.06.
Bitcoin's long-term holders have returned to accumulation
Long-term holding wallets have shifted to net accumulation from net distribution, according to Glassnode. - Long-term holders, defined as wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days, have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, signaling renewed demand for the cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode data. The most notable of those undercurrents is the long-term holder net position change, which has flipped back into positive territory after an extended period of distribution. The indicator tracks the 30-day net change in supply held by wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days (nearly six months), qualifying them as long-term holders in Glassnode's framework. The current accumulation appears to be running in the range of roughly 50,000 to 100,000 BTC on a net basis, based on Glassnode's chart. That's a notable positive behavioral change, though the pace of accumulation remains modest compared to the waves of buying seen during prior bull markets. For context, price upswings in November 2024 and May 2025 saw net long-term holder accumulation approaching 400,000 BTC. "Historically, sustained transitions from net distribution to net accumulation have often emerged during periods of market weakness, as long-term investors gradually increase their holdings while shorter-term participants de-risk," Glassnode said in its latest report.
Metaplanet buys another $170 million of bitcoin expanding treasury to 43,000 BTC
Metaplanet purchased an additional 2,823 BTC, increasing its total holdings to 43,000 BTC. The company's Bitcoin Income Generation business reported approximately US$10.85 million (JPY 1.747 billion) in Q2 revenue and US$29.30 million (JPY 4.717 billion) for the first half of FY2026. Metaplanet uses bitcoin options to generate recurring income while expanding the company's bitcoin holdings. On a trailing 12-month basis, revenue reached approximately 11.4 billion yen.
Live markets: Bitcoin holds above $60,000 as yen jumps on intervention fears
Binance saw over $2 billion in net outflows over the past 7 days, according to CoinMarketCap data. The world's largest crypto exchange’s retail flow profile has also been weakening. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said BTC inflows of less than 1 BTC on Binance have fallen to a monthly average of 329 BTC per day, the lowest level in the exchange’s history. That compares with 2,690 BTC per day at the 2021 cycle peak and 3,700 BTC per day in 2018, according to the analyst. A single day in January 2018 saw 10,400 BTC of sub-1 BTC inflows.
Semiconductor
Micron Is Now Everyone Else's Problem (Rating Downgrade)
Management is already guiding for margin expansion to slow; in Q2, management guided for margin expansion of 6.1% versus in Q3, where they guided for 1.4% expansion. SK hynix’s move to reallocate HBM manufacturing capacity to DRAM means the shortage will ease into year-end, accelerating potential price moderation and increasing risk to MU's pricing power.
Sandisk Is One of the Biggest Winners After Micron's Blowout Earnings
Micron delivered 196% year-over-year revenue growth in that quarter, compared to Sandisk's 251% year-over-year revenue growth. Sandisk's 97% sequential growth in its fiscal 2026 Q3 also exceeded Micron's 75% sequential growth in its fiscal 2026 Q2.
AMD Stock Price Prediction: Strong Analyst Consensus Lifts the Target
AMD earns a BUY with a $586 price target as Data Center revenue surged 57% to $5.78 billion in Q1 FY2026. Lisa Su projects the server CPU market will exceed $120 billion by 2030, with Cantor Fitzgerald and UBS targeting AMD at $700 and $670. Customer engagement on MI450 and Helios is "exceeding our initial expectations", with the Meta deal alone covering up to 6 gigawatts of Instinct GPU deployment.
Marvell Technology vs Broadcom: One Stock is Better Positioned for the AI Boom
AVGO posted $10.8 billion in AI semiconductor revenue, up 143%, while MRVL shares surged 39% post-earnings on just $2.4 billion in total revenue. Hock Tan guided $16 billion in Q3 AI semiconductor revenue, a 200%-plus year-over-year jump that sets a bar any miss will quickly punish. Marvell's quarter was anchored by its Data Center segment, which delivered $1.83 billion in revenue, 76% of the total and up 27% year over year. Total revenue reached $2.418 billion, up 27.6%, and management guided Q2 to $2.70 billion, roughly 35% growth. Broadcom played a very different game. Total revenue hit $22.187 billion, up 47.9%, with AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion, growing 143% year over year.
Broadcom Is Quietly Dominating AI Chips. Here Are 5 Overlooked Stocks Powering the Same Boom
Taiwan's IC industry alone is projected to hit NT$8,445.0 billion (US$270.7B) in 2026, a 30% jump from 2025, and every one of those chips has to be packaged, tested, cooled, and cleaned by someone. The Advanced Computing & Communications segment is the tell. AC&C revenue hit $105.00 million in Q1 2026, up 41% year over year, driven explicitly by enterprise AI clusters and on-prem cloud buildouts. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 9-10%, up from prior expectations of mid-single-digit growth. Revenue of $1.684 billion beat consensus by 2% and grew 28% year over year, while EPS of $0.33 crushed the $0.24 estimate by 36%, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly beat. Advanced Products, which houses flip chip, memory, and wafer-level packaging, delivered $1.37 billion in net sales. Management is pouring the profits back into capacity, guiding full-year 2026 capex to $2.5 billion to $3.0 billion. Consolidated net revenues reached NT$63.03 billion, up 29% year over year, while the ATM (assembly, testing, materials) segment posted NT$42.16 billion, up 38% year over year, meaningfully outpacing the parent. Q1 2026 consolidated quarterly earnings grew 88% year over year, and inside ATM, advanced packaging now accounts for 49% of segment revenue, up from 46%, with computing applications climbing to 27% of ATM revenue from 22%. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 9-10%, up from prior expectations of mid-single-digit growth. CEO Dave Reeder was blunt on the driver: "the semiconductor market continues to improve, driven by accelerating AI-related demand" and Entegris is "well positioned to capture incremental content from industry node migrations."
Intel Just Hit a 52-Week High: Buy, Sell or Hold At $140?
Intel Foundry losses remain structural. Operating losses ran $2.51B in Q4 2025 and $3.2B in Q2 2025, and management flagged potential pause of Intel 14A if customer demand falls short. Segment mix validates the AI thesis. Data Center and AI grew 22% to $5.052B and Intel Foundry rose 16% to $5.421B. Intel trades at a forward P/E of 147x with trailing EPS of -$0.60 and profit margin of -5.9%.
After Three Years of Tracking the AI Capex Cycle These 3 Semiconductor ETFs Sit on Top of the Trade
Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon are guiding combined 2026 capital expenditures above $400 billion, up from roughly $230 billion in 2024, and most of that flows through chip designers, foundries, memory makers, and lithography vendors.
GE Vernova Was Red Hot in the First Six Months of 2026. Can It Keep the Momentum Going in the Second Half?
The stock of GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is up almost 60% in 2026 as of this writing. GE Vernova generates the bulk of its profit from services. The company sells gas turbines (and wind turbines) that come with long-term service agreements attached, which generally run for 5 to 25 years and "generally include maintenance associated with major outage events," according to the company's Securities and Exchange Commission filings. All together, when GE Vernova increases its equipment backlog, as it did in the first quarter by reporting a $76 billion backlog, compared to a $64 billion backlog at the end of 2025, then investors need to start penciling in increased long-term earnings and cash flow from servicing gas power turbines (particularly heavy-duty gas power turbines used for data centers), and wind turbines. SRAs are contracts under which customers pay up-front to secure future manufacturing slots for equipment. Their growth is a key marker of surging demand, and they increased to 56 gigawatts (GW) in the first quarter from 43 GW at the end of 2025.
Wall Street Keeps Hiking Its Price Targets on This AI Powerhouse
AMD's Data Center segment surged 57% YoY to $5.8B in Q1, pushing total revenue to $10.3B as growth accelerates. OpenAI and Meta each committed 6 gigawatts of AMD GPU deployments, with Gartner naming AMD the top enterprise AI server CPU provider. Lisa Su doubled AMD's 2030 server CPU addressable market forecast to $120B as Q1 net income surged 95% YoY, eroding the valuation concern. The conviction starts with what AMD actually sells now. Server CPUs and AI accelerators going into the largest computing buildout I have ever watched as an investor. In Q1 2026, the Data Center segment did $5.775 billion in revenue, up 57% year over year, and it is now the primary engine of the whole company. Total revenue hit $10.253 billion, up 37.85% YoY, and Su guided Q2 to roughly $11.2 billion, which implies about 46% YoY growth. Growth is accelerating. Second, the customer list now reads like a who's who of the AI buildout. OpenAI selected AMD as a core preferred partner for 6 gigawatts of GPU deployment. Meta committed to deploy up to 6 gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs and is the lead customer on the 6th Gen EPYC Venice/Verano CPUs. Third, the balance sheet lets Su play offense. Debt-to-equity sits at 0.071, interest coverage at 28.2x, and the company runs a net cash position. Shareholders' equity is $64.462 billion.
Trump Just Called Micron the ‘Hottest’ Company in the World. The Market Yawned and Dumped It 10%
Micron came into today priced for something close to perfection. The stock is up 754% over the past year and 227% year to date, with a market cap sitting around $1.17 trillion. The Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings report on June 24 was that reason, and it already ran. Revenue landed at $41.456 billion, up 345.72% year over year, beating consensus by 17.60%. Non-GAAP EPS came in at $25.11 against a $20.28 estimate, the seventh consecutive beat. Management guided Q4 to $50 billion in revenue and $31.00 in EPS. Micron is also holding $22 billion in customer cash deposits and letters of credit against take-or-pay commitments. HBM4 shipments have already crossed $1 billion, and Mehrotra said the ramp is tracking twice as fast as HBM3E 12-high. Micron’s fundamental case is intact, arguably strengthened, by the Q3 results and the SCA structure.
AMD Stock Is Having Its Best Year In A Decade — And CEO Lisa Su Gets $36M Equity Reward To Match
AMD’s revenue jumped 38% to $10.25 billion in its fiscal first quarter, beating expectations, with the data center business expanding 57%. The chipmaker's current quarter revenue of $11.2 billion, plus or minus $300 million, is also higher than analysts’ targets.
AI / Robotics / EV
BYD set to again overtake Tesla as top electric car seller
BYD delivered 557,090 battery-electric vehicles in Q2, according to figures released Wednesday. Tesla is expected to report quarterly sales of approximately 396,500 vehicles next week. BYD first surpassed Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2024 and maintained its lead through 2025.
Anthropic says Trump admin has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5
Fable 5 will again be available to global users on the Claude platform, Claude.AI, and Claude Code starting Wednesday, according to a statement by the company. The AI model will also be included for up to 50% of weekly usage limits through July 7 for users of the Pro, Max, Team, as well as selected enterprise plans, the company said.
Electric Vehicles Today - Advancing Grid Resilience With Vehicle-To-Grid Technology
The Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) market is poised for substantial growth as electric vehicles (EVs) increasingly integrate with renewable energy systems, enhancing grid stability and energy management. Recent advancements in bidirectional charging technology allow EVs to store and supply energy, contributing to grid resilience during peak demand periods.
Geely Automobile posts modest June sales growth as EV and exports surge (GELYF)
240,799 units in June 2026, representing a 2% increase compared with the same month last year. 102,874 vehicles in June, marking a 157% increase compared with the same period in 2025 and highlighting the company's expanding global footprint. 1,422,958 vehicles, a 1% increase from the corresponding period last year. 1,100,373 units, representing a 5% decline from the first half of 2025.
Palantir's Karp bashes OpenAI, Anthropic token model: 'Something has gone completely wrong'
As AI costs surge, and new models prove pricier than previous iterations, enterprises are shifting from a mindset of so-called "tokenmaxxing" in favor of a return on investment. That setup is prompting some enterprises to adopt open weight models, capable of performing similar tasks at a fraction of the price.
A Big Red Flag for Lucid -- Is it Speeding Toward Bankruptcy?
Lucid's recent red flags don't stop with its employee cuts, either. The company also confirmed last week that it eliminated the second production shift at its Casa Grande, Arizona, factory. There isn't much of a positive spin you can put on this, as it's simply trying to match production with lower-than-anticipated consumer demand for its vehicles and to balance inventory that had become bloated after a supplier issue slowed deliveries of the Gravity SUV. During the first quarter of 2026, the company produced 5,500 vehicles and delivered only just over 3,000, prompting it to pull its guidance and indicating it will provide more insight during the second-quarter earnings call. Lucid's net loss in 2025 hit $2.7 billion, flat with the prior year's $2.71 billion; its operating loss widened from $2.4 billion in 2024 to $3.5 billion in 2025; and its cash burn was a staggering $3.8 billion in 2025 alone. Lucid's moves to cut workforce and overhead by the third quarter are expected to cost the company roughly $32 million in severance pay but will save about $158 million in annualized costs.
Forget Tesla: Why Smart Money Is Ditching Tesla To Buy Apple Stock
Tesla trades at 416x earnings while revenue fell 3% and deliveries dropped 9%; Apple delivers 17% revenue growth at just 38x earnings. Apple returned $32 billion to shareholders last quarter alone through buybacks and dividends; Tesla offers neither. Prediction markets give Tesla's California robotaxi launch just a 1-in-200 chance by mid-2026, while Apple posted its 8th straight EPS beat.
Together AI raises $800 million at $8.3 billion valuation
Together AI was valued at $3.3 billion in a February 2025 funding round led by General Catalyst, which had more than doubled its earlier $1.25 billion valuation from March 2024. The company said it would use the Series C funding to widen its offerings as it expands into a provider of inference, which is the process of running trained AI models. Together AI expects its computing capacity and infrastructure to expand roughly 50-fold over the next five years.
Data Analytics Q1 Earnings: Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ:PLTR) is the Best in the Biz
Palantir Technologies reported revenues of $1.63 billion, up 84.7% year on year. This print exceeded analysts' expectations by 6.1%. Overall, it was a stunning quarter for the company with an impressive beat of analysts' billings and EBITDA estimates. CLEAR Secure reported revenues of $253 million, up 19.7% year on year, outperforming analysts' expectations by 3.5%. The business had an exceptional quarter with a solid beat of analysts' EBITDA estimates and revenue guidance for next quarter exceeding analysts' expectations. Domo delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates in the group. Interestingly, the stock is up 3.5% since the results and currently trades at $3.07. Health Catalyst reported revenues of $70.76 million, down 10.9% year on year. This print topped analysts' expectations by 2.3%. Taking a step back, it was a slower quarter as it logged full-year EBITDA guidance missing analysts' expectations significantly and revenue guidance for next quarter missing analysts' expectations. Strategy reported revenues of $124.3 million, up 11.9% year on year. This result beat analysts' expectations by 2%. Zooming out, it was a softer quarter as it produced a significant miss of analysts' billings estimates.
BofA Highlights Pony AI (PONY) Robotaxi Expansion
Pony AI Inc. (NASDAQ:PONY) plans to have over 3,500 robotaxis in over 20 cities by the end of 2026, with Singapore serving as a hub for global expansion.
Bloomberg Reporter: Why “The Race Is Back On” Against China As U.S. Lifts Anthropic’s Fable 5 International Restrictions
According to the segment, the Trump administration had, weeks earlier, required Anthropic to seek permission before allowing foreign access to its most powerful models, Mythos 5 and Fable 5. Low reported that restrictions on the more powerful Mythos 5 were lifted only for vetted companies, such as critical infrastructure providers and cyber defenders. For Fable 5, a less powerful, public-facing model intended for widespread use, all foreign access restrictions are being removed. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN | AMZN Price Prediction)'s AWS is investing $1 billion in a new Forward Deployed Engineering unit designed to help customers operationalize AI systems, including a managed service for classified defense workloads.
Palantir Jumps 9% on NVIDIA Sovereign-AI Deal, Palo Alto Networks Climbs 4%
Palantir’s market cap now sits at roughly $304.6 billion. Analyst Alex Zukin flagged net revenue retention of 150%, 85% year-over-year revenue growth. Zukin also modeled a base-case revenue CAGR of 39% from 2026 to 2029 against a total addressable market over $385 billion.
Dnotitia Unveils STAR-KV, Achieving UP to 20x KV Cache Compression, Selected as an ICML 2026 Spotlight Paper
According to the STAR-KV paper, when a LLaMA-3.1-8B model processes a 128K-token context at a batch size of 4, the KV cache accounts for about 81% of total GPU memory. STAR-KV compressed the full KV cache by up to 20x.
OpenAI proposes 5% stake to Trump administration to ease Washington pressure: report
A 5% holding would be worth roughly $42.6 billion, after the AI fab closed a record-breaking funding round in March at a post-money valuation of $852 billion. The U.S. government holds a 10% stake in Intel Corp after an $8.9 billion investment in the chipmaker's common stock.
Power / Grid
Agencia Comercial Spirits (AGCC) Secures Power Deals for Indonesia AI Project
The electricity supply arrangements are intended to support staged development of the project, including an approximately 40MW IT load requirement, subject to implementation, installation readiness, certifications, PLN requirements, construction progress, equipment procurement, financing, and other conditions.
TimesSquare Mid Cap Growth Strategy Bets on Cameco Corp. (CCJ), a Uranium Supplier
On June 30, 2026, Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ) closed at $101.86 per share, reflecting a market capitalization of $44.38 billion. Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ) posted a one-month return of -11.09%, while its shares gained 42.14% over the past 52 weeks. New to the sector this quarter was Cameco Corporation (NYSE:CCJ), which supplies uranium for electricity generation in the Americas, Europe, and Asia. They own and operate some of the largest uranium mines and sell to utility companies across sixteen different countries.
BW ESS begins construction at 1GW BESS site in Germany
The facility will have a capacity of 1GW with up to 5.7GW-hours (GWh) of storage, making it the largest project of its kind in Germany and among the largest in Europe. The BESS will be able to supply electricity to approximately three million households in Germany for a minimum of four hours. BW ESS made its initial investment in the project in 2024 and assumed full ownership earlier this year.
Software
Etsy vs. MercadoLibre: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $2.9 billion, representing a modest growth rate of roughly 2.7% compared to the previous fiscal year. During FY 2025, revenue reached approximately $28.9 billion, a 39.1% increase over the prior year. Net income for the fiscal year was approximately $2.0 billion, resulting in a net margin of 6.9%.
Elevance Health (ELV) Enhances Health OS to Automate Clinical Reviews and Reduce Provider Administrative Burdens
By replacing manual processes with automated data sharing, the system significantly reduces administrative burdens for providers, including a 61% drop in prior authorization denials and faster decision-making. The platform's electronic prior authorization capabilities are particularly impactful, with over 42% of requests now processed in under one minute. Elevance Health Inc. (NYSE:ELV) is a US health company providing managed care and health solutions to over 119 million people.
Big Tech's first half was a story of hardware versus software
Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta, and Microsoft are expected to spend roughly $725 billion this year on capital expenditures, with the majority of that going to AI infrastructure. Look at Micron, for instance. In its latest quarter, it reported a 345% increase in revenue to $41.4 billion and earnings per share that blasted higher 1,214% to $25.11.
The 3 Best Dividend Aristocrats for 2026: The Halftime Scorecard
Lowe's earned the original nod on the strength of its home-improvement scale, its Total Home strategy, and a more than 60-year streak of dividend raises that qualifies it as a Dividend King. That thesis has run into a wall of housing softness. Shares closed at $220.49 on June 30, 2026, down 8.6% year to date. The dividend, however, keeps climbing. Lowe's raised the quarterly payout from $1.20 to $1.25 with the July 22, 2026, ex-date, pushing the run rate to $4.80 per share annually for a 2.3% yield. Lowe's beat consensus estimates in each of the past six quarters, including adjusted EPS of $3.03 versus a $2.97 estimate for the quarter reported May 20, 2026, on revenue of $23.08 billion, up 10.3% year over year.
Is SAP SE (SAP) Positioned to Benefit from AI?
SAP SE (NYSE:SAP) has a market capitalization of $181.69 billion. "SAP SE (NYSE:SAP): Rather than being disrupted by AI, as the market has been suggesting lately, we believe SAP is very well positioned to benefit from it. The mission critical nature of the software, the deep integration with customers' IT systems and comprehensive suite of products will allow SAP to naturally embed AI agents, both horizontally — through SAP Business AI and the Joule copilot — and vertically within each product across planning, execution, and network function. Beyond the long-term tailwind from AI, SAP will benefit in the coming years from a set of structural growth drivers that are specific to the company's businesses: The catch up in cloud-based products, the ongoing migration wave to the S/4data base and strong growth in Supply Chain Management (SCM)..."
Here’s How ServiceNow (NOW) Positioned for Success in the AI Era
ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) has a market capitalization of $102.38 billion. Various discussions with our experts and research partners have reinforced our view that ServiceNow is not only well protected from AI disruption, but well-positioned to benefit from the AI wave. Why? The ServiceNow platform is very broadly and deeply intertwined with enterprises' IT systems and thus will enable the deployment of AI capabilities and act as a command center for AI agents at scale – a very favorable position to be in, in our view. ServiceNow's recent acquisitions (e.g., Moveworks, Armis) and the rollout of AI-driven features (Pro Plus, Now Assist, AI Control Tower) are seen as strategic moves to not only enhancing its AI capabilities, but also driving expansion into new verticals such as security, IoT, CRM, data orchestration and governance, opening further avenues for future growth. As an additional benefit, the ServiceNow platform is becoming increasingly valuable to manage and protect against cyber risks, enabling end-to-end collaboration across tasks such as analyzing threat bulletins, assessing the attack surface, calculating risk posture, prioritizing threat response, and remediating exposure.
Builders Stage agenda revealed: Practical strategies for scaling startups at TechCrunch Disrupt 2026
$0–$10M ARR is increasingly becoming the new early-stage baseline. The definition of traction has changed. What once took years is now expected in months, and $0–$10M ARR is increasingly becoming the new early-stage baseline. This session breaks down how AI-enabled execution, faster distribution, and shifting investor expectations are compressing GTM timelines, and the tactical levers founders need in the first 90 days to accelerate revenue and stand out fast. The smartest founders today aren’t just building for IPOs; they’re also building with possible acquisitions in mind from day one. As exits shift and capital tightens, understanding M&A early has become a competitive advantage. This session breaks down how founders can create the possibility of such an option through product strategy and partnerships. It delves into how big-dollar startup outcomes actually happen, even for small companies. Series A is getting harder, with VCs growing more demanding. For founders planning to raise in the next 1–2 years, this session breaks down what “fundable” will actually mean in 2027. Hear how top investors are redefining the metrics, teams, and traction that matter now, what outdated fundraising playbooks no longer work, and how companies can separate from the pack in the next funding cycle. The definition of traction has changed. What once took years is now expected in months, and $0–$10M ARR is increasingly becoming the new early-stage baseline.
Meta Platforms Jumps 9% on Potential Plans to Sell AI Compute, Challenging Amazon, Microsoft, Google
Shares of Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) are up 9% to $613 in morning trading, marking one of the sharpest single-session moves for the stock this year. The catalyst is a Bloomberg report that the company is building a cloud infrastructure business to sell its excess AI computing capacity to outside customers. If confirmed, the shift would put Meta Platforms into direct competition with the biggest names in cloud. The jump reframes a stock that had been under sustained pressure. Meta Platforms stock is still down 7.45% year to date, as investors questioned the payoff on the company's aggressive AI capital spending. Today's rally begins to close that gap. Per Bloomberg, Meta Platforms is weighing two options: hosting AI models for developers to access (compared to Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) AWS Bedrock), and renting out raw compute capacity as a "neocloud," an approach the report explicitly likened to CoreWeave (NASDAQ:CRWV). If it proceeds, the business would compete directly with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure, and Alphabet's (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Google Cloud. Those three remain the entrenched incumbents in the space. The report echoes comments Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg made at the company's May shareholder meeting, where he called the idea "definitely on the table". He noted that companies ask "almost every week" to buy Meta Platforms' spare compute or model access at a premium, framing external sales as a hedge in case the company overbuilt.
Meta Stock Price Prediction: The Forecast Sees a Path to $800+
Our model's rating is buy, with a confidence level of 90%, which we consider high. Revenue delivered revenue of $56.31 billion, up 33.08% YoY, with EPS of $10.44 versus a $6.66 consensus, a 56.79% beat. Management raised 2026 capex guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion, fueling the "incinerating capital" narrative that gathered momentum in late June. The bull case rests on Meta's ad engine compounding while AI investment turns into monetizable products. Q1 saw Business AI weekly conversations rise to 10 million from 1 million at the start of 2026, the Value Optimization Suite cross a $20 billion annual run rate, and AI glasses daily active users triple year over year. Our bull-case scenario points to $864.66 over 12 months, a 57.14% return. The bear case starts with capex. The $125 to $145 billion 2026 capex nearly doubles 2025 spending and pressures free cash flow, which fell 19.39% in 2025.
BTQ Technologies clears final hurdle to buy French quantum firm QPerfect
The global quantum computing market was worth roughly $1.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about $3 billion by 2028, growing around 30% a year, according to industry estimates. Bain and Company has put the long-term potential as high as $250 billion across pharmaceuticals, finance, logistics, and materials science. The post-quantum cryptography market was about $1.6 billion in 2025 and is projected to hit $20.5 billion by 2033, a compound annual growth rate of nearly 38%, per SNS Insider. NIST wants quantum-vulnerable encryption removed from its standards by 2035, and the National Security Agency requires quantum-safe algorithms for new national security systems by January 2027.
Microsoft layoffs 2026: cuts hitting sales, consulting, and Xbox
Fewer than one in 40 of Microsoft's approximately 220,000 employees are expected to lose their jobs. The prior year saw two separate rounds of reductions: roughly 6,000 departures in May 2025 and a larger wave of around 9,000 — representing about 4% of total headcount — that came in July 2025. Microsoft's most recent quarterly filing showed a 7% drop in gaming revenue to $5.3 billion for the period ending March 31, with hardware sales falling 33% and content and services revenue declining 5%.
CoreWeave Vs. Nebius: CoreWeave’s US Footprint Beats Nebius’s Premium European Expansion
CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) and Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS | NBIS Price Prediction) both reported first quarter results that reshape how investors should think about AI cloud infrastructure. CoreWeave leaned into raw US scale, banking a $99.4 billion backlog. Nebius told a different story. Revenue of $399 million missed the $593.19 million consensus, yet the AI Cloud unit ran at a 45% adjusted EBITDA margin, and cost of revenue collapsed from 49% to 26%.
Alphabet Is Now Part of the Dow. That's a Big Validation of Greg Abel's Boldest Berkshire Bet Yet.
The technology sector now accounts for almost 20% of U.S. jobs (according to the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation), and roughly 10% of domestic GDP (according to the National Science Board), despite the country's economy still being mostly service-oriented.
Insight to Offer Microsoft 365 E7 AI-Powered Frontier Suite to Market, Leading by Example with Its Own Enterprise-Wide Deployment
Through its Flight Academy program, Insight achieved 91% Copilot adoption across its global workforce in just nine months, with teammates reporting an average of four hours of estimated productivity gained per week. Insight has formalized this methodology into a repeatable deployment framework now available to clients, compressing what took Insight months into an accelerated engagement model.
JMP Securities Reaffirms Bullish Outlook on Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Following Copilot Cowork Launch
On June 16, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stated that Copilot Cowork will be available globally and billed depending on usage. The first power delivery from Project Kilby is anticipated in 2028. According to Stifel, this is the earliest schedule that is feasible, though the project might take longer based on the legal landscape and actual economic value generated.
H World Group (HTHT) Reports Strong Q1 Earnings and Accelerates Hotel Expansion
As of March 31, H World Group Limited (NASDAQ:HTHT) operated 13,215 hotels with 1,303,563 rooms globally, and 2,894 more hotels were in progress. H World China opened 537 hotels and shuttered 177 during the quarter, indicating that despite surpassing 13,000 hotels, the company is still working aggressively to expand its network.
Nebius, Coreweave, and IREN Tumble on Meta’s Cloud Ambitions. Is This the End of the Neocloud Boom?
Annual AI infrastructure spending by the major hyperscalers is approaching $750 billion, as they, startups, and governments compete for compute power. Meta has indicated it expects to build tens of gigawatts of AI capacity over time. The risks include: AI demand slowing before capacity investments generate returns
JEPI’s 8.4% Yield Masks a Tax Trap: SPYI Delivers 65% More Cash to Retirees in High Brackets
About 95% of SPYI's distributions qualify as return of capital, deferring taxes but lowering cost basis and creating a future capital gain. The NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF runs a data-driven options overlay using Section 1256 S&P 500 index options. Net assets total about $6.9 billion, with an expense ratio of 0.68%. The key structural feature is that realized gains on Section 1256 contracts receive 60% long-term and 40% short-term capital gains treatment regardless of your holding period. The NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF's trailing yield is 11.9%, compared with 8.1% for the JPMorgan fund. On a $200,000 position, the after-tax math at a 32% federal bracket works out roughly like this: the JPMorgan fund delivers about $11,424 in net cash, while the NEOS fund's 60/40 options treatment produces an effective rate near 21.8% and roughly $18,768 in net cash.
Why CoreWeave Stock Is Tumbling Today
OpenAI, Cloudflare, and Perplexity are just some of its customers contributing to Q1's revenue of nearly $2.1 billion, up 111% year over year. It isn't insignificant, though. The company is budgeting up to $145 billion worth of capital expenditures for this year alone -- largely on AI infrastructure -- as part of a sizable wave of past and future investment in such technology.
Oracle Just Became an AI Cloud Powerhouse. Here Are 5 Under-the-Radar Stocks Along for the Ride
Applied Digital (APLD) and HIVE Digital (HIVE) both pulled back sharply despite APLD's $16 billion contracted backlog and HIVE's 158% revenue surge. Rezolve AI posted Q1 revenue of $60 million, up 1,800% year over year, and is targeting $360 million in full-year 2026 guidance. Blaize (BZAI) expanded gross margin from 11% to 58% in a single quarter; five analysts carry a $4.80 Buy target versus $1.39 shares. Hyperscaler capex has ballooned to nearly $700 billion, up from roughly $400 billion just three months earlier, according to Applied Digital CEO Wes Cummins. Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue landed at $126.64 million, up 139% year over year and beating the $78.48 million consensus. Adjusted EBITDA swung to $44.14 million from $6.26 million a year earlier, and adjusted EPS came in at $0.09 versus a -$0.21 estimate, the fourth consecutive beat. Total contracted capacity of 600 MW represents roughly $16 billion in aggregate revenue over the lease terms. Fiscal 2026 revenue landed at $297.79 million, up 158% year over year. HPC ARR has already grown from roughly $20 million to $35 million, and the planned 320 MW GTA AI Gigafactory is designed to host more than 100,000 GPUs, generating roughly $360 million in ARR at full operations. Q1 2026 revenue hit $2.70 million, up 168% year over year, with gross margin expanding to 58% from 11% the prior quarter.
Adobe Nearing 52-Week Low: Buy, Sell or Hold?
Quick Read - ADBE trades near its $190 52-week low despite posting record quarterly revenue of $6.62 billion and carrying a forward P/E of just 8. Free cash flow is prolific: $10.03 billion in operating cash flow in FY2025. Fundamentals are accelerating. Q2 FY2026 delivered record revenue of $6.62 billion, up 13% YoY, with non-GAAP EPS of $5.96 extending a five-quarter beat streak.
ServiceNow Rises on Guggenheim Upgrade
Shares climbed 4.5% in premarket trading after analyst John DiFucci upgraded ServiceNow to Buy from Neutral. He said the company remains profitable and should continue growing at a double-digit pace, even if the broader software market stays uneven. The upgrade came with a few warnings. Guggenheim does not expect ServiceNow to become a major winner from AI monetization.
BigBear.ai vs. SoundHound AI: Which AI Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
In 2025, revenue reached $127.7 million, a 19.3% decline from the previous year. In 2025, SoundHound AI reported revenue of approximately $168.9 million, up nearly 99.4% over the prior year. The company recorded a net loss of $14 million. This resulted in a net margin of approximately-8.3%, indicating the company is nearing the break-even point. According to its December 2025 balance sheet, the debt-to-equity ratio is 0.3x. The company maintains a current ratio of nearly 4.6x, suggesting a strong liquidity position for its current operations. Free cash flow for 2025 was negative $99 million. This figure represents the cash remaining after the company pays for its operating costs and capital investments. The good news is that it is in a solid financial position, with its March 31, 2026, balance sheet showing $215 million in cash and no debt.
NextEra’s $67 Billion Megamerger Proves Dominion Was the Real AI Infrastructure Prize All Along
Revenue hit $5.02 billion, up 23.1% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $0.95 against a $0.91 estimate. NextEra Energy Resources added 4 GW to backlog, taking the total to about 33 GW. CEO John Ketchum stated: "NextEra Energy builds all forms of energy infrastructure and has experience across the entire energy value chain at massive scale with a balance sheet to back it up."
The latest AI news we announced in June 2026
We rolled out new features and Gemini upgrades designed to make your device more creative and secure. This update introduces screen recording reactions, AI-powered video and music creation, and floating app bubbles for easier multitasking. You'll also get expanded real-time voice translation, custom voicemail greetings and automated emergency notifications. The top 15% of UK AI users are benefitting from the technology. They are fast-tracking their careers and more likely to report strong performance reviews, promotions and pay rises.
Wall Street Lunch: Meta's AI Cloud Bet Lifts Shares, Hits Neocloud Rivals
Meta has also discussed selling raw computing capacity, putting it in more direct competition with CoreWeave (CRWV) and other neocloud providers. Oracle (ORCL) was among the additions. Analysts said the company is a major beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout, with hyperscale cloud commitments driving record remaining performance obligations and improving revenue visibility.
IBM (IBM) Picks Stagwell To Rework Its Global Brand Playbook
Over longer horizons, IBM has posted gains of 2.1% over 1 year, very large cumulative returns over 3 years, and 160.6% over 5 years. A clearer and more consistent brand message could influence how customers and partners compare IBM with other large technology providers, which is often an important piece of the long term investment thesis around NYSE:IBM. For investors, the new global creative partnership may matter less for short term price moves and more for how IBM is positioned with enterprise buyers as it focuses on AI, hybrid cloud, and quantum services. A single lead creative partner working alongside a new global media agency of record can help IBM present one coherent story to enterprise buyers and governments that now see it as an AI infrastructure and security partner rather than just a traditional IT vendor. The near term question is whether more consistent messaging around watsonx, Red Hat, security offerings such as Lightwell, and quantum services can support deal pipelines and contract renewals, particularly against large competitors such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google Cloud that already invest heavily in marketing their AI platforms. Earnings are forecast to grow, and a unified brand around AI, hybrid-cloud and security could help IBM compete for higher value, multi-year enterprise contracts that support that trajectory.
PagerDuty, Paychex, and Commerce Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
When a previously cautious, highly ranked analyst flips to Buy on the two enterprise-SaaS bellwethers purely on valuation, it signals the "SaaSpocalypse" repricing overshot, de-risking the whole complex and inviting bargain-hunting across peers. Oracle's ~2% bounce added an independent second leg, driven by inclusion on William Blair's July Analyst Conviction List, a new AI product, and oversold conditions after the previous disclosure of a $40 billion AI-infrastructure raise. Together they extended a multi-week recovery. The pre-existing trigger was the chip-to-software rotation, sparked by a June 25 report that OpenAI may delay its IPO, which softened the "SaaSpocalypse" fear that AI labs would quickly cannibalize incumbent SaaS.The Iran news matters for software through the rate channel.
The Trade Desk (TTD) Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know
Shares of digital advertising platform The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) jumped 5.7% in the afternoon session after Guggenheim's John DiFucci upgraded both Salesforce and ServiceNow to Buy, arguing the AI-disruption fear that gutted the sector during the year had pushed valuations too low. This was a valuation call from a skeptic, not an AI endorsement. DiFucci wrote he is "not upgrading because we see [ServiceNow] as an AI beneficiary," calling near-term AI monetization "unlikely to materialize" and AI risks "very real," while arguing the darkest scenario was already priced in (CRM at ~3.7x EV/recurring revenue; NOW's $125 target at 7.5x EV/NTM recurring revenue).The read-through was what lifted the group. When a previously cautious, highly ranked analyst flips to Buy on the two enterprise-SaaS bellwethers purely on valuation, it signals the "SaaSpocalypse" repricing overshot, de-risking the whole complex and inviting bargain-hunting across peers. Oracle's ~2% bounce added an independent second leg, driven by inclusion on William Blair's July Analyst Conviction List, a new AI product, and oversold conditions after the previous disclosure of a $40 billion AI-infrastructure raise. Together they extended a multi-week recovery. The sector's underlying thesis remained intact: the SaaSpocalypse narrative broke, and many names continued to trade well below their 52-week highs. The pullback was the market catching its breath before the next round of data, not reversing course.
Stock Market Today, July 1: Meta Surges on Reported Plan for AI Cloud Business
Meta Platforms’ rally followed reports that the company is developing a cloud business to generate revenue from excess AI computing capacity, giving investors a new way to think about its heavy AI infrastructure spending. The reported initiative may involve offering access to AI models hosted on Meta’s proprietary systems, which could reframe the company’s data-center expansion as a potential revenue source rather than solely a cost burden. This distinction is important as Meta has increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $125 billion to $145 billion, making AI returns a key factor in its valuation. Since the cloud initiative is still in development, investors will need further evidence before considering it a significant business line.
Is ServiceNow Stock a Buy After Its Brutal First Half?
ServiceNow's first quarter of 2026 was strong by pretty much every measure. Subscription revenue rose 22% year over year (19% in constant currency) to $3.67 billion. And current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) -- contracted revenue the company expects to book over the next 12 months, and a useful read on near-term demand -- climbed 22.5% to $12.64 billion. Bigger deals, specifically, grew faster still: ServiceNow closed 16 transactions worth more than $5 million in net new annual contract value in the quarter, up nearly 80% from a year earlier. "There has never been a tailwind for ServiceNow like AI," said CEO Bill McDermott on the company's first-quarter earnings call. There's also a structural reason the AI-disruption worry may be overdone here. About half of ServiceNow's net new business now comes from pricing that isn't tied to user seats -- consumption-based models built around tokens, infrastructure, and connectors, McDermott said. ServiceNow has leaned into that position. In January, it signed a multi-year agreement to make OpenAI's models a preferred option across the more than 80 billion workflows that run on its platform each year. The recent rebound in software stocks even has a tidy catalyst: in late June, the White House reportedly asked OpenAI to limit its most powerful new model to a small group of vetted partners, cooling fears that frontier AI would instantly commoditize enterprise software. For all of 2026, management guided for subscription revenue of about $15.75 billion, up more than 20%, and ServiceNow turns much of that into cash, posting a 44% free cash flow margin in the first quarter.
Zoom and C3.ai Shares Are Soaring, What You Need To Know
Zoom's shares are somewhat volatile and have had 13 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Salesforce trades around $152, down roughly 43% year-to-date and near its 52-week low. Adobe fell approximately 49% over the past year and has not traded this cheap on earnings in over a decade.
Why Meta Platforms Stock Surged Today
In all, Meta plans to spend as much as $145 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 alone. The move could place Meta in more direct competition with AI infrastructure providers such as Nebius and CoreWeave, along with hyperscalers like Microsoft and Alphabet's Google Cloud.
META Stock Drops Overnight After Best Day In 6 Months: Analysts See 'Margin Of Safety' From AI Cloud Computing Business
The cloud business is "strategic" to Meta's longer-term AI ambitions, Jefferies said, adding that it appears to mirror Amazon's AWS playbook of monetizing excess compute capacity to lift utilization, improve ROIC, and boost cash flow to fund more internal capital investments.
Appian and GitLab Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know
Appian's shares are very volatile and have had 27 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today's move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business. The previous big move we wrote about was 7 days ago when the stock gained 2.8% on the news that the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4.5%, providing valuation relief amid a broader tech pullback. Software companies, particularly high-growth SaaS names, are highly sensitive to interest rates because their valuations are based on cash flows expected far in the future. When the 10-year yield drops, the discount rate applied to those future earnings decreases, mechanically boosting their present value. While semiconductor stocks like Micron (-2%) and Cerebras (-10%) dragged the Nasdaq lower, software names like Salesforce and ServiceNow found relative support from falling yields.The 10-year Treasury yield fell below 4.5% as oil prices slid, signaling easing inflation pressures.
8x8, Zeta Global, and Unity Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know
8x8's shares are extremely volatile and have had 57 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Salesforce trades around $152, down roughly 43% year-to-date and near its 52-week low. Adobe fell approximately 49% over the past year and has not traded this cheap on earnings in over a decade.
1 Artificial Intelligence Stock You Can Buy and Hold for the Next Decade
While smaller AI companies have high revenue growth but burn through money, Alphabet delivers healthy profits while expanding in key markets. It reported almost $130 billion in operating income in 2025 and started 2026 strong with $39.7 billion in operating income, which was a 29.7% year-over-year improvement. Google Cloud stole the show in Alphabet's Q1 2026 earnings, with a 63% year-over-year growth rate. Google Cloud has become a vital part of enterprise AI infrastructure, and its accelerated growth rate is a clear example of Alphabet generating a positive ROI from its AI investments. Overall revenue was up 22% year over year. Gemini has already been well-received as Google's AI model. Gemini Enterprise experienced 40% sequential growth in the number of paid monthly active users, once again showing a real connection between AI investments and additional revenue. Waymo is another exciting AI start-up that is within Alphabet's corporate profile. Alphabet's Q1 press release touted Waymo's achievement of surpassing 500,000 fully autonomous rides per week. Self-driving vehicles could transform transportation and become a meaningful revenue compounder once autonomous rides become more mainstream. When Alphabet embraces a new AI opportunity, there isn't much worry about whether Alphabet will go bankrupt or never realize a profit. The company is loaded with cash, especially after an $84.75 billion equity capital raise designed to expand AI infrastructure and compute. To top it all off, Alphabet still has a compelling valuation. Its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.5 is lower than the S&P 500's, despite Alphabet growing faster than most of the companies in the famed index.
How Dutch Bros Stock Gained 23.8% Last Month
According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, this marked one of the coffee chain's biggest two-day surges since Dutch Bros went public in 2021. The company's own story helped too. A Q1 earnings beat in May, raised full-year revenue guidance ($2.05 billion to $2.08 billion), and plans for at least 185 new locations this year gave investors something to point to beyond just a nice inflation report.
archTIS secures A$3.2M defence contract
The contract includes A$1.0 million in annual recurring software licences and A$2.2 million in application development and maintenance services. Lai said the company was entering commercial contract negotiations for a potential licence deal involving around 120,000 licences.
Aerospace
The SpaceX IPO tells one story. Here is the more important one.
SpaceX’s prospectus confirmed what these companies already know. Starlink accounted for $11.4 billion of SpaceX’s $18.7 billion 2025 revenues, around 61% of the total, with $4.4 billion in operating profit at 63% margins. McKinsey and the World Economic Forum project the space economy could reach $1.8 trillion by 2035. Parametric insurance — where satellite data triggers claim payouts when flood, wildfire or drought thresholds are crossed — is projected to reach $51 billion by 2034.
Good News For Lockheed Martin Stock Fans
The U.S. Army Contracting Command is overseeing the program. Separately, Lockheed Martin received a $103.9 million contract modification supporting the F-100 mid-life upgrade program for the Kingdom of Spain. The funding will cover long-lead materials, initial engineering activities and the establishment of a test site. About $51.4 million was obligated at the time of award, and the funding will remain available beyond the current fiscal year.
Dan Ives Just Gave Elon Musk and SpaceX Some Great News
The primary profitability driver, Ives wrote, is the company's Connectivity division, which includes the Starlink global satellite internet constellation, comprising 9,600 satellites in low Earth orbit. Starlink provides mobile and broadband services in 30 countries and six continents, currently serving more than 10.3 million customers. SpaceX already has deals with Alphabet, Anthropic, and Reflection AI to provide computing capacity in terrestrial data centers. SpaceX is expected to generate $2 billion per month from those contracts. Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter for the IPO, projects that the company's revenue will jump from $6.6 billion in 2025 to $352 billion by the end of the decade. But to make that happen, SpaceX plans to spend $350 billion in capital expenditures by 2030.
AMD Is Up 150% This Year But Here Are 5 Overlooked Stocks Betting on What Comes Next
SDGR beat Q1 consensus by 23% with drug discovery revenue doubling; LASR defense revenue hit a record $33M on 55% year-over-year growth. UMAC revenue surged 296% year over year, and management says over half of Pentagon Drone Dominance program customers already buy from the company. The Pentagon just earmarked over $74 billion for drone dominance and counter drone technologies in the FY2027 budget request, and that is only one slice of the AI arms race AMD and NVIDIA are fighting over.
Forget SpaceX: This High-Margin Space Data King Is Cheaper
In Q1 FY2027, revenue hit a record $94.15 million, up 42% YoY, with GAAP gross margin at 54% and non-GAAP gross margin at 56%. About 99% of annual contract value is recurring. Forward visibility is the number retirement investors should care about. Planet exited the quarter with backlog above $906 million, up 72% YoY, and remaining performance obligations of $816.01 million, up 81% YoY. FY2026 delivered $52.87 million in free cash flow and $15.49 million of adjusted EBITDA profit, the first full year of both. FY2027 guidance calls for $425 million to $441 million in revenue and up to $10 million of adjusted EBITDA profit.
FCC to vote on satellite licensing overhaul July 22
In 2020, the FCC generated more than $80 billion from auctioning 280 MHz of lower C-band spectrum to Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile and other terrestrial 5G players. About $13.4 billion of those proceeds went to incumbent spectrum holders, primarily SES and Intelsat, to encourage them to quickly relocate services to the remaining 200 MHz of C-band and to cover relocation costs, including new satellites.
Bio
Bristol Myers Squibb vs. Johnson & Johnson: Which Healthcare Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
In fiscal 2025, revenue reached nearly $48.2 billion, reflecting a slight decrease of approximately 0.2% compared to the previous year. The company reported net income of roughly $7.1 billion during this period, resulting in a net margin of approximately 14.6%. This was a significant recovery from the prior fiscal year, when Bristol Myers recorded a substantial net loss following specific business shifts. In fiscal 2025, revenue reached approximately $94.2 billion, up nearly 6% year over year. Net income was roughly $26.8 billion, which was a notable increase from the prior year. This resulted in a net margin of approximately 28.5%, which calculates the percentage of revenue remaining after all expenses are paid. The debt-to-equity ratio is approximately 0.6. This indicates that the company uses significantly less debt relative to its equity than many of its industry peers. The current ratio is roughly 1.0, and the company generated close to $19.7 billion in free cash flow, which is the cash remaining after paying for operations and equipment. Bristol Myers Squibb faces significant pricing pressures from the Inflation Reduction Act, which allows for government-negotiated prices on key drugs like Eliquis. The company also faces the loss of market exclusivity for older brands like Revlimid, which opens the door for cheaper generics.
Here’s Why TimesSquare Mid Cap Growth Strategy Added Insmed (INSM)
On June 30, 2026, Insmed Incorporated (NASDAQ:INSM) closed at $106.62 per share, reflecting a market capitalization of $23.11 billion. Insmed Incorporated (NASDAQ:INSM) posted a one-month return of 2.66%, and its shares gained 8.53% over the past 52 weeks. In our view, Brunsupri is their primary driver, with expectations of $1 billion in sales for 2026.
Eli Lilly Price Prediction: The Case for Double-Digit Upside
Our bull case target is $1,409.34, a 17.5% return. The engine is the incretin franchise. Combined Mounjaro and Zepbound revenue hit $12.8 billion in Q1, and international volume grew 81%. Foundayo, the first oral GLP-1 with no food or water restrictions, is already tracking with 80% of prescriptions going to new-to-class patients, expanding the market rather than cannibalizing injectables. Retatrutide’s Phase III diabetes readout showed 11.1 to 16.6 kilograms of weight loss, and the pipeline runs 42 active Phase III programs.
Merck halts ph. 2 Alzheimer’s trial after Neuphoria small molecule underwhelms
Merck stopped the 349-patient study after the small molecule MK-1167 “did not meet the necessary efficacy criteria to warrant further investigation,” a company spokesperson told Fierce Biotech. The trial was testing the ability of MK-1167, a modulator of the alpha-7 nicotinic acetylcholine receptor, to improve Alzheimer’s dementia symptoms when paired with a standard acetylcholinesterase inhibitor.
Consumer / Retail
Cumberland Farms completes $830m sale of Australian business
Across its markets, Cumberland Farms employs around 32,000 people and operates more than 4,000 sites.
Nike swings to Q4 profit on tariff refund boost, but China slump deepens
US sportswear retailer Nike reported full-year revenue of $46.39bn for fiscal year 2026, while fourth-quarter (Q4) profit rose on an expected tariff recovery alongside continued weakness in China and Europe. Gross margin increased by 890 basis points to 49.2%, mainly due to an approximately 900-basis point benefit from the anticipated recovery of International Emergency Economic Powers Act tariffs, valued at $986m. Net income rose by just over four times, or 407%, to $1.06bn in the quarter. Nike Brand revenue was unchanged on a reported basis at $10.72bn but declined 3% on a currency-neutral basis, as falls in Greater China and Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) were offset by growth in North America. Full-year wholesale revenue increased by 6% to $27.5bn, while Nike Direct revenue declined by 6% to $17.7bn. Converse revenue for the year fell by 31% to $1.2bn.
German retail sales climb 1.1% in May
German retail sales climbed in May, with turnover increasing by 1.1% in real terms against the previous month, provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has shown. On a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, retail turnover grew 1.1% in real terms and 1% in nominal terms against April 2026 figures. Measured against May 2025, turnover was up 1.8% in real terms and 3.2% in nominal terms. Food retail turnover rose 1.1% in real terms and 1% in nominal terms in May against the previous month, on a calendar and seasonally adjusted basis, and was 0.6% higher in real terms and 1.5% higher in nominal terms year-on-year. Non-food retail turnover increased 1% in real terms and 1.2% in nominal terms month-on-month, and 2.7% in real terms and 4.3% in nominal terms compared with May 2025. Internet and mail order trade posted the sharpest rise among the categories, up 3.4% in real terms and 3.6% in nominal terms against April, and 7% and 7.8% respectively against May 2025.
New MBA graduates are expected to earn $5,000 less than last year's graduating class. Is the degree still worth it?
The median starting salary for new MBA graduates is expected to fall to $120,000 this year, down from $125,000 in 2025, according to a Graduate Management Admission Council survey cited by The Wall Street Journal. Employers also expect graduates with other business master's degrees to earn about 10% less this year, (1) with median starting salaries projected to fall from $92,500 to $82,500 as companies grow more selective about hiring early-career talent. That uncertainty comes with a hefty price tag. The average MBA costs (4) about $63,000, while tuition at some top-tier business schools can reach roughly $125,000 a year.
Wall Street Breakfast Podcast: Peak Power Problems
The European Union has begun imposing a €3 customs fee on low-value e-commerce imports from outside the bloc. This move is expected to raise costs for shoppers buying from Chinese online marketplaces such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress. CMA CGM is nearing a deal to buy FedEx’s (FDX) third-party logistics business for $1.4B in cash.
Daiwa Moves PDD Holdings (PDD) to Hold
PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) is one of the 10 Fastest Growing Asian Stocks to Buy Now. On June 24, 2026, Daiwa downgraded PDD Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:PDD) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $80, down from $145. Daiwa said China's 2026 6.18 shopping festival "delivered a negative surprise," with overall gross merchandise value up only 0.9% year-over-year versus a 15% increase in 2025, according to Syntun. The firm said the data confirms a "weak" e-commerce consumption trend in China and cited a "tough" macro backdrop, tightening regulations, a scaled-back national trade-in program, and a high base as limits on sector growth.
HSBC Keeps Hold Rating on Li Auto (LI)
Earlier in June, Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ:LI) announced that it delivered 33,350 vehicles in May. As of May 31, cumulative deliveries reached 1,702,792. Since March this year, monthly deliveries of Li i6 have consistently exceeded 20,000 units.
Here’s How Much Money You Need to Replace a $50,000 Income With Dividends
At a roughly 10% aggressive yield, you need about $500,000 of capital. At a roughly 3% conservative yield, you need about $1.67 million. Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO | KO Price Prediction) currently yields 3% on a $2.06 annual dividend, with the Q2 2026 payout sitting at 53 cents per share. The company paid $8.8 billion in dividends in 2025 and just logged its 63rd consecutive year of dividend increases. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) yields 2% at an annualized $5.36, after raising the quarterly payout to $1.34 in Q2 2026. JNJ is a 60-plus-year dividend grower with a beta of 0.256 and is up more than 103% over the past year. At a blended ~2.3% yield, replacing $50,000 in income with a KO/JNJ mix would require closer to $2.1 million in capital. That is the price of sleep-at-night durability and dividend growth that has historically outpaced inflation. Core PCE is currently running at index 130.08, up 0% month over month, which is exactly the headwind a 2% raise cannot afford to fall behind on. At 6%, a single-name MAIN portfolio would need roughly $820,000 to throw off $50,000 of regular dividends, before supplementals. The tradeoff: payout ratios are higher, NAV growth is slower, and a softer credit cycle would compress the supplemental first. At 11%, $50,000 of income requires roughly $470,000 in ARCC stock. That is the appeal. The risks are real and worth pricing in: ARCC shares are down more than 15% over the past year, and BDC loan yields are tied to short rates.
Nike's latest weak quarter explained in 4 charts
Nike reported fiscal fourth quarter revenue of $11.0 billion, reflecting a 1% decline on a reported basis and a 4% drop on a currency-neutral basis. Executives guided for fiscal first quarter revenues to be down low single-digit to mid single-digit percentage. It reiterated flat earnings-per-share growth over the next three quarters, excluding benefits from tariff recovery proceeds.
Advertising Pullbacks Pressured Pinterest (PINS) in Q1
In its first-quarter 2026 investor letter, TimesSquare Capital U.S. Mid Cap Growth Strategy highlighted Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS). Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) is a social media and visual discovery platform that enables users to find ideas, such as recipes, home, and style inspiration. On June 30, 2026, Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) closed at $21.03 per share. One-month return of Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) was 1.74%, and its shares lost 41.16% over the past 52 weeks. Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) has a market capitalization of $11.78 billion. TimesSquare Capital U.S. Mid Cap Growth Strategy stated the following regarding Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) in its Q1 2026 investor letter: "For the Communication Services sector, we prefer to invest in media and services companies that are either well placed from an advertising perspective for their target audience or that provide differentiated services. Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) is an image-based social media platform. We exited our position following slower-than-expected fourth-quarter results and cautious guidance, attributed to advertising pullbacks by retailers impacted by tariffs. Its shares were down -44% while held in the quarter. The combination of softer-than-expected results along with lackluster forward guidance led us to liquidate the position." Pinterest, Inc. (NYSE:PINS) delivered $1 billion in revenue, up 18% year over year.
PEPSICO ANNOUNCES PROGRESS TOWARD 2030 AGRICULTURE GOALS
Scaling Regenerative, Restorative, and Protective Agriculture PepsiCo has expanded regenerative, restorative, and protective practices to 4.7 million acres globally, representing significant progress toward its goal to reach 10 million acres by 2030. Advancing Sustainable Sourcing PepsiCo continues to make steady progress toward its goal to sustainably source 90% of its key ingredients and progress volumes (10% or less) that face systemic barriers towards being sustainably sourced in accordance with its guidelines by 2030. Progress toward this goal covers in-scope ingredients and materials greater than 0.01% of annual volume-based supply, for use in wholly owned manufacturing facilities, as well as PepsiCo's direct purchases on behalf of contract manufacturers and co-packers. Livelihoods Since 2021, PepsiCo has supported approximately 224,000 people across its agricultural supply chains and communities with dedicated programing designed to improve economic prosperity and farmer and farm worker security—nearing its goal to positively impact more than 250,000 livelihoods by 2030.
Here’s What Lifted BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings Inc. (BJ) in Q1
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) posted a one-month return of -2.20%, and its shares lost 20.08% over the past 52 weeks. Our preferences in the Consumer-oriented sectors lean toward value-oriented or specialty retailers, franchise models, premium brands, or support services for other consumer companies. BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) operates membership warehouse clubs in the eastern half of the U.S. Fourth quarter results outpaced the consensus on better same-store sales and higher gross margins from gasoline sales, leading to a 9% rise in the stock price. According to our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BJ) at the end of the first quarter, compared to 36 in the previous quarter.
Goldman Sachs Thinks Travel & Leisure (TNL) Is A Top Travel Stocks To Buy Amid Iran Peace Deal, Here’s Why
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Lizzie Dove remarked, "TNL has avoided some of the mistakes of its peers and instead stuck to its bread and butter and focused on the execution of its core business. Additionally, we believe TNL's 2026 guidance is too conservative."
Expedia (EXPE) Stock To Continue Its Momentum After Latest Acquisition
Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) has significantly outperformed the broader travel industry over the last 12 months. Earlier on May 20, EXPE announced an agreement to acquire CarTrawler, an Ireland-based B2B platform powering car rental. This collaboration enhances Expedia's ability to deliver mobility and Insuretech solutions for travelers worldwide.
Booking Holdings (BKN) Has Significant Upside According To Analysts As Oil Prices Decline
BKNG's exceptional long-term execution and scale advantages have helped it outperform the broader travel industry. The company has achieved this by focusing on attractive markets and efficiently attracting customers through its marketing and distribution channels. Moreover, with the increasing travel demand, BKNG is building platforms that hotels increasingly rely on.
3 Top Dividend Stocks to Own No Matter What Happens to Interest Rates This Year
Even as inflation persists, Coca-Cola has been reporting strong performance. Organic revenue increased 10% year over year in the 2026 first quarter, and operating margin was 35%, up from 32.9% the previous year. Realty Income has strong credit ratings and substantial capital resources that enable it to keep buying new, quality properties; it deployed $72 billion from 2019 through now on $555 billion of sourced volume. In the 2026 fiscal third quarter (ended March 31), sales were up 7% year over year, and earnings per share were up 6%.
Morgan Stanley Raises its Price Target on U.S. Bancorp (USB)
Morgan Stanley analyst Manan Gosalia raised the firm's price target on U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) to $67 from $64 and kept an Equal Weight rating. Truist said the bank's net interest margin expansion remains in focus as U.S. Bancorp moves closer to its near-term goal of reaching a 3% margin at some point in 2027. The company said its stress capital buffer will remain unchanged at 2.6% until October 1, 2027, requiring a CET1 ratio at or above 7.1%.
Former retail giant has closed over 1,000 locations
Office supply stores as a sector employ some 60,000 people and bring in $10.3 billion in revenue in the U.S., which is projected to decline roughly 2% a year through 2026, according to research firm IBISWorld. That has led to Office Depot closing more than half its stores since 2013, a process that has continued with the chain's most recent shutdowns. The company, which is no longer public, reported in a an SEC filing that it had 822 locations as of Nov. 5, 2025.
Price Prediction: iQIYI Has 74% Upside Despite Recent Earnings Disappointment
iQIYI trades at $1.01, down 47.4% year to date and 42.94% over the past year. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for iQIYI is $1.76, implying 74.21% upside and a buy recommendation at moderate confidence. Nadou Pro AI platform surpassed 10,000 creators in one month and delivered a 50% improvement in shot production efficiency. Across 23 analysts, the consensus is 12 Buys, 10 Holds, 1 Sell, with targets ranging up to $2.44.
William Blair Highlights The Campbell’s Company (CPB)’s Stable Growth Strategy
The Campbell's Company (NASDAQ:CPB) has a strong position in the product categories and food and beverage segments in which it operates. Shakno claims that the company's leading brands usually occupy the top or a sizable portion of the market, and Campbell's has developed a growth and productivity plan that should allow it to consistently provide both top-line and bottom-line growth. The company announced earnings per share of $0.50, exceeding the consensus expectation by $0.02. Organic sales fell 4% during the quarter, with both the Meals & Beverages and Snacks sectors reporting declines of 4%.
NextEra’s $67 Billion Megamerger Proves Dominion Was the Real AI Infrastructure Prize All Along
Revenue hit $5.02 billion, up 23.1% year over year, with adjusted EPS of $0.95 against a $0.91 estimate. Dominion Energy Virginia operating earnings jumped $109 million as Loudoun County hyperscaler load compounded. NextEra’s earnings report leaned on Florida and renewables backlog. Adjusted EPS rose 10% to $1.09, FPL added roughly 100,000 customers, and NextEra Energy Resources added 4 GW to backlog, taking the total to about 33 GW. Dominion controls regulated transmission corridors into Northern Virginia, the undisputed data center capital of the world. NextEra owns generation scale across 49 states, plus the recommissioning of the 615-megawatt Duane Arnold nuclear plant with Google and a 9.5 GW gas build in Texas and Pennsylvania under the U.S.-Japan trade deal. Dominion shareholders get an implied $76 per share via 0.8138 NEE shares plus a $360 million cash sweetener. The stock trades at $69.39, up 20.88% year to date, so the market is pricing regulatory friction. Virginia regulators remember NextEra’s $150 million Florida political interference settlement. CVOW cost recovery, the July 4, 2026 clean-energy tax-credit deadline, and the $2.24 billion termination fee matter more than the next quarterly earnings report. Dominion offers the cleaner setup today on the numbers. Holders currently see a 3.84% yield and a roughly 10% spread to the $76 implied deal price while regulators work. If the deal closes, you convert into NextEra shares at a baked-in ratio. If it breaks, Dominion still owns the Loudoun corridor every hyperscaler needs.
Price Prediction: We’re Bearish on Bloom Energy and See Shares Falling
$751.054 million, up 130.37% year over year, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.44 versus the $0.1285 consensus. Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $3.40B to $3.80B. The product backlog stands at $6 billion with total backlog at $20 billion. PineBridge sees datacenter equipment growth “essentially locked in for the next four to five years” at roughly 25% annually. BE trades at a Price/Sales ratio of 29x and an EV/EBITDA of 640x.
Goldman Sachs initiates FedEx Freight with Buy, sees 23% margin expansion upside
The brokerage said FedEx Freight is positioned to benefit from a recovery in industrial freight demand, while also pursuing company-specific initiatives including greater exposure to small and medium-sized businesses, expansion in healthcare, grocery and data-center logistics, and higher pricing as contracts are renewed on a standalone basis rather than as part of bundled FedEx offerings. Goldman expects the company to improve its operating ratio toward a medium-term target of 85%, supported by pricing gains, productivity initiatives, technology investments and stronger freight volumes.
Nike (NKE) Stock May Be A Bargain On Earnings But Fully Priced On Cash Flow
Nike shares have fallen about 70.8% over the past 5 years, which shows how sharply sentiment has reset around the company. The stock screens as neither clearly cheap nor clearly expensive on the broader checks. Nike scores 4 out of 6 on valuation, and the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate sits only about 6.0% above the current price while multiples suggest some undervaluation. The recent downgrade cycle, with firms such as Evercore and JPMorgan citing execution issues and weak demand in Greater China, helps explain why the market is reluctant to pay a premium to this cash flow estimate. NIKE currently trades on about 20.5x earnings, compared with an industry average of roughly 22.1x and a peer group average near 27.9x, so the stock sits at a discount to both its sector and closer peers. On Simply Wall St's fair P/E estimate of 26.9x, which reflects NIKE's business mix, profitability and risk profile, the current P/E implies that investors are paying less than this tailored benchmark for each dollar of earnings.
Shopify (SHOP) Shares Skyrocket, What You Need To Know
Shopify's shares are extremely volatile and have had 35 moves greater than 5% over the last year. Software companies are among the most sensitive to long-term interest rates because their valuations depend on earnings projected years ahead. The discount rate applied to those forward cash flows is derived from the risk-free rate, in practice, the 10-year Treasury yield. When that yield drops to 4.41%, its lowest since mid-May, valuations across the sector improve without a single new contract being signed. Shopify is down 22.7% since the beginning of the year, and at $121.55 per share, it is trading 32.1% below its 52-week high of $179.01 from October 2025.
Tripadvisor (TRIP) Is Up 5.9% After Selling TheFork To AmEx For $700 Million In Cash
Tripadvisor's narrative projects $2.3 billion revenue and $144.6 million earnings by 2028. The highest estimate analysts were already expecting revenue to reach about US$2.3 billion and earnings of roughly US$183 million by 2029, which is far more optimistic than the baseline view.
Is Nike Inc a Buy After Its Latest Earnings Report?
Nike's revenue was down 1%, or 4% on a currency-neutral basis, to $11 billion, which was slightly ahead of estimates at $10.85 billion. The company received a one-time windfall of $986 million from the reversal of some tariffs. Excluding that, gross margin was down 10 basis points to 40.2%, which shows the key metric stabilizing after several quarters of steep declines, though tariffs were the primary reason for lower gross margins. Selling, general, and administrative expenses fell 2% to $4.08 billion as it scaled back on advertising spending, and excluding the tariff-related benefit, earnings per share was $0.20, up from $0.14, marking its first quarter of EPS growth in two years. Looking ahead, Nike once again offered cautious guidance, citing a volatile macro environment, and said it did not expect conditions to improve over the next six months. The company continues to see flat earnings over the next two quarters, though it's dialing down its revenue forecast and raising its gross margin guidance. For the first quarter, it forecast a low-to-mid-single-digit decline in revenue. Comparable sales and revenue at Foot Locker, long a key partner for Nike, was positive for the first time in four years, showing that its efforts to repair relationships with its wholesale partners are paying off. Wholesale revenue was up 10% in the quarter in North America, while Nike Direct was down 6%. It also reported its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in running, one of its biggest categories, showing it has successfully responded to competition from upstart brands like Deckers' Hoka and On Holding.
XRP edges higher as whale activity rises while retail traders stay cautious
New wallet creation hit a three-month high and large-holder activity strengthened, but XRP still needs to reclaim $1.10 before the recovery looks convincing. Network and institutional signals are strengthening, with daily new wallet creations hitting a three-month high and June XRP ETF inflows topping $62 million for roughly $1.48 billion in cumulative net flows. June inflows across XRP ETFs surpassed $62 million, taking cumulative net flows to roughly $1.48 billion.
How Instacart (CART) Is Bringing Physical AI Into The Grocery Aisle
Instacart's chief connected store officer, David McIntosh, said the company's AI-powered Caper smart carts combine cameras, sensors, and certified scales. It has also used Nvidia Jetson hardware to spot products in real time while displaying shoppers' running totals. McIntosh said Instacart (NASDAQ:CART)'s StoreView platform captures shelf images through Caper carts and order pickers, using on-device AI to identify out-of-stock items and help retailers replenish inventory. He revealed that Caper synchronizes shopping lists created online with in-store carts and delivers personalized recommendations using customers' shopping history and location within the store. Instacart's chief connected store officer also said the online app firm supports hundreds of retailer storefronts. It has processed 1.6 billion lifetime online grocery orders and collects millions of in-store sensor inputs daily to improve AI tools for retail partners.
Walmart (WMT) Is Down 8.6% After Slowing U.S. Comps Raise Questions On Margin Strategy
In late June 2026, Cleveland Research flagged signs of slowing U.S. comparable sales at Walmart and highlighted the retailer's use of price cuts and tariff refunds to manage inventory, raising questions about near-term sales guidance and operating margins. Walmart's narrative projects $832.5 billion revenue and $29.3 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 4.7% yearly revenue growth and a $6.6 billion earnings increase from $22.7 billion today.
This Once-Booming Stock Is Down 78% From Its All-Time High. Here's 1 Reason to Consider Buying Now.
Revenue increased 4% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (ended May 3), with sales in the critical U.S. market down 4%, likely due to a combination of competitive forces, disappointing product releases, and inflationary pressures. Lululemon still reports robust profitability, with a gross margin of 54.2% last fiscal quarter.
Others
ARTAN Bio Closes $1 Million Seed Round to Advance its tRNA Platform Toward Human Studies
The financing will support advancement of ARTAN Bio's proprietary mutation-specific codon suppression platform toward first-in-human development. Nonsense mutations are genetic errors that create premature stop signals during protein translation, preventing production of full-length functional proteins. These mutations are implicated across a wide range of genetic and aging-related diseases. ARTAN Bio's lead platform is built around an engineered suppressor tRNA system designed to restore protein translation in cells harboring disease-causing nonsense mutations.
Data Shows Why This Software ETF is Poised to Rally
At the beginning of June, I wrote about two sector exchange traded funds (ETFs) that had become significantly overextended. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) was trading more than 50% above its 200-day moving average, while the iShares Software ETF (IGV) was over 25% above its 50-day moving average. Historical data showed that after reaching these extreme levels, sector ETFs tended to experience a short-term pullback before resuming a longer-term uptrend. Specifically, it highlighted the following month's underperformance and outperformance. Since May, however, SMH has chopped around to a 5% gain. IGV has pulled back sharply potentially creating a buying opportunity if history is any indicator. IGV Holdings and Performance Data The table below lists the top holdings of the IGV software ETF along with some stock performance data. I show month-to-date, year-to-date, and year-over-year returns. The last column in the table shows where the stock is relative to the last year of trading (0% means it's at its low and 100% means it's at its high). I sorted the list by the stock's performance since the end of May. For those looking for pullbacks, since that's the pattern that has played out in the past, it's the stocks at the top of the table that have pulled back the most recently. If you're looking for a pullback but want to avoid a beaten down stock, AppLovin' (APP) has pulled back sharply, though its 52-week range shows 41%. Several stocks near the bottom of the table have been strong long-term and held up well over the past month when most of the sector had struggled. The next table shows the same stocks as above—this time with analyst data, option buy-to-open (BTO) data, and our Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS). I will also mention why these could be relevant to picking equities and touch on some of the notable stocks. Fortinet (FTNT) stands out. In the table above, we see FTNT is at a 52-week high (52-week range at 100%) and has been strong over each time frame. Despite this, only 21% of analysts recommend a buy for the stock. If the stock continues like this, those analysts will have no choice but to capitulate and set the scene for a wave of upgrades. In that scenario, the stock could propel higher. Plus, with that historical trend in mind, IGV could outperform for the next several months.
VYM Delivers 200% in 10 Years, but the Income Tradeoff Costs $3,150 Annually
The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF tracks the FTSE High Dividend Yield Index, which screens the top 50% of U.S. dividend payers by yield and weights them by market capitalization. The result is a portfolio of 580+ positions spanning large-cap financials, healthcare, energy, industrials, and utilities. Technology and financials each account for 20%, with no single sector dominating. Total assets under management run $78.33 billion, and the expense ratio is a lean 0.04%. The return engine is plain. Underlying companies pay cash dividends, the fund collects them, and shareholders receive quarterly distributions. Quarterly payments have been made uninterrupted since 2006, including during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Recent distributions range from $0.84 to $0.98, with the most recent payment of $0.9795 on June 18, 2026. The 10-year total return for this fund runs 200%, with a 5-year return of 75% and a 1-year gain of 23%. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD), the obvious comparison, has returned 223% over 10 years and 51% over 5. The income picture cuts the other way. The Vanguard fund’s trailing yield is 2.3%, against the Schwab fund’s 3.4%. A $300,000 allocation at 2.35% in the Vanguard fund produces $7,050 a year, while the Schwab fund at 3.4% generates $10,200. The Schwab fund delivers $3,150 more in annual cash.
Pfizer vs Verizon Communications: Which High-Yielding Dividend Stock Is the Better Buy?
Pfizer yields around 7.1% while Verizon's payout is closer to 6.7%. They also trade at less than nine times their expected future earnings (based on analyst expectations), making them attractive value buys. Verizon's payout ratio based on earnings is around 67%. It's a good, healthy rate that you want to see from a quality dividend stock. Pfizer is a bit more complicated. Its payout ratio is more than 100%, but the reality is that its earnings are worse than they look due to acquisition-related expenses and non-cash items. In terms of cash flow, the story looks a bit better for Pfizer as its free cash flow has been more than the cash dividends the company has paid out in two of the past three quarters. It can fluctuate, but generally, the payout looks well-supported. Pfizer's dividend looks reasonably safe, but it's clear that the edge here goes to Verizon, which has generated a massive $20 billion in free cash over the past four quarters, well above the $11.5 billion it has paid in dividends. The edge clearly goes to Pfizer here. But it's worth noting the big spike around 2021 when Pfizer generated a boatload of revenue from its COVID vaccine and pill, and the slowing down of its dividend growth rate recently. For Verizon, its big unknown is related to SpaceX and how competitive its Starlink business may prove to be. It's a tough question to answer right now, but Verizon may face greater adversity and competition, leading to more aggressive pricing, margin pressure, and lower earnings and free cash flow. Verizon, however, doesn't have to drastically alter its growth strategy and likely spend as heavily as Pfizer might; thus, it gets the edge based on their criteria.
ExxonMobil vs. Chevron: The Illusion of Revenue Scale
ExxonMobil primarily generates revenue by exploring for, extracting, and refining oil and natural gas globally, while also manufacturing commercial petrochemicals, olefins, and specialized chemical products. It recently reached a preliminary agreement to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to South Africa and secured a Supreme Court ruling in Cuban litigation, while reporting a net income margin of about 5% for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Chevron (NYSE:CVX) primarily generates revenue from the exploration, extraction, pipeline transportation, and refining of crude oil and natural gas, as well as the production of industrial bulk petrochemicals. Chevron recently signed a power agreement with Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) in Texas and posted an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT), or operating margin, of 7% EBIT margin for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. ExxonMobil's FY 2025 annual production hit a 40-year high of 4.7 million barrels of oil equivalent every single day (MBOED), with production from the Permian Basin and Guyana hitting all-time highs.
The Smartest Dividend ETF to Buy With $2,000 in July
SCHD has surged 18% year to date and returned 25% over the trailing year, reclaiming its spot as the top core dividend ETF. SPY returned just 9% year to date versus SCHD's 18%, flipping a multi-year growth dominance narrative on its head. SCHD carries zero AI megacap exposure, making it a pure value-and-income bet that lags badly if growth stocks reassert leadership. The Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEARCA:SCHD) is the smartest dividend ETF to buy with $2,000 in July, and the data behind that call is more decisive than it has been in years. Start with the price action. SCHD is trading at $31.80 as of June 30, 2026, and the fund is up 18% year to date. Over the trailing year, it has returned 25%. For context, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), the standard proxy for the S&P 500, is up just 9% year to date and 21% over the past year. That is a sharp reversal. SCHD spent much of the post-2020 cycle trailing the broad market as megacap technology dragged the index higher. The five-year picture still reflects that gap: SCHD has returned 51% versus 73% for the S&P 500 ETF. The 2026 outperformance is real, and it is starting to compound. SCHD owns a concentrated list of mature, high-quality dividend payers. The top 10 positions as of Dec. 31, 2025 are Bristol-Myers Squibb (4%), Merck (4%), ConocoPhillips (4%), Lockheed Martin (4%), Chevron (4%), Verizon Communications (4%), AbbVie (4%), Cisco Systems (4%), Coca-Cola (4%) and Altria (4%). No single position breaks above 4%, and the sector mix leans into healthcare, energy, defense, telecom, and consumer staples. That is the kind of portfolio that holds up when growth multiples compress. SCHD now manages $71.6 billion in net assets as of year-end 2025. That scale matters: it means tight bid-ask spreads, deep liquidity, and no liquidation risk for a long-term holder. The most recent distribution had an ex-dividend date of June 24, with a payout of 25 cents per share. The March distribution was 25 cents. SCHD has maintained uninterrupted quarterly dividend payments for 15+ years, with the per-share payout growing from 12 cents in Q4 2011 to recent quarters in the 25- to 28-cent range. The trailing yield sits at roughly 3%, which is meaningfully above the S&P 500's payout rate.
1 Masterclass in Pricing Power Makes Altria an Absolute Sanctuary for Retirees
Altria (MO) yields 5.73%, has raised its dividend 60 times in 56 years, and its smokeable segment operates at a 65.1% operating margin. CEO Billy Gifford reported Altria returned $8 billion to shareholders in 2025 while growing adjusted EPS 7.3% in Q1 2026. Altria's 78% payout ratio looks elevated, but rising EPS guidance mechanically eases it while pricing power offsets a 5% industry volume decline. The company paid $7.0 billion in dividends in 2025 against operating income of $9.899 billion, with capex of only $175 to $225 million. Altria carries negative shareholders' equity of $3.211 billion, a function of years of aggressive buybacks. EBITDA of $15.79 billion against the debt load keeps leverage manageable, and cash sits at $3.531 billion. The smokeable margin expansion to 65.1% confirms pricing power is offsetting the 5% industry volume decline. The 5-year dividend CAGR runs roughly 3.8%, in line with management's mid-single-digit growth target through 2028.